uploaded image
Image generated with Dall-e 3

Apple Earnings Preview: China in Focus as iPhone 16 Sales Kick Off

By:Thomas Westwater

The company’s stock is up 6% since Aug. 1 and on track to record a sixth straight monthly gain

  • Apple is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, Oct. 31.
  • Earnings and revenue are expected to grow from the year before.
  • Apple trades with an implied volatility rank of 45.4 going into earnings.

Apple (AAPL) is expected to report fourth-quarter fiscal results on Thursday after the market close. A conference call is scheduled to begin at 4:00 p.m. Central.

The iPhone maker’s stock is on track to record a sixth straight monthly gain as October nears a close. The stock is up about 6% since Aug. 1, when Apple reported third-quarter results. Meanwhile, investors await Apple earnings as well as other high-profile names like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

Last quarter, Apple posted a beat on earnings and revenue, posting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40 and revenue of $85.78 billion. One drawback for last quarter was the situation in China, where revenue was weaker than expected at $14.73 billion vs. the $15.26 billion that analysts expected.

What do investors expect from Apple for the fourth quarter?

Analysts anticipate Apple will post an EPS figure of $1.60 on $94.51 billion in revenue, according to TradingView. That would be up 9.59% and 5.60% year-over-year, respectively.

The reporting quarter ended at the close of September, so the sales figures will partly reflect the releases of Apple’s latest-generation products, such as the iPhone 16 and AirPods Max. That said, much of the performance will rely on how well iPhone 15s sold.

Still, industry reports show a early iPhone 16 sales in China have been positive, which may go a long way in supporting the stock’s post-earnings performance. As previously noted, China has been a weak spot for Apple, putting it in the spotlight this quarter for investors. China’s economy has lagged against expectations.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated on X that iPhone 16 orders were cut by about 10 million units when including the three quarters from Q4 ’24 to Q2 ’25. Those cuts pertain to the lower-end models, which may end up translating to higher demand for the Pro and Pro Max models. If so, that could help to boost optimism as it pertains to China.

iPad revenue is expected to grow to about $7 billion, and services are looking at a 13% increase. While China is important, the bulk of revenue remains concentrated in North America, so the regional breakdown will also be key for the stock’s performance.

Trading Apple earnings

Apple, as of today, traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 44.8, meaning volatility is relatively subdued compared to the past 12 months. The expected move priced by the options market sees a +/ 7.34-point move following earnings, which translates to a 3.13% move. That said, there isn’t too much premium priced into the options structure. Traders may choose to take a directional bet through buying a put or call if they have a directional bias.

AAPL

Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

Trade with a better brokeropen a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies. 


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.