Coinbase (COIN) Earnings Preview

• Coinbase will report quarterly earnings on February 12th, after the market closes
• COIN stock boasts a high implied volatility for the quarter, with a +-8.5% stock price range
• Coinbase is expected to report an earnings-per-share of around $1.15 on $1.96 billion in revenue
• Robinhood's 11% selloff on Wednesday after earnings could be a sign of what's to come for COIN stock

Coinbase Trading Near Multi-Year Lows

Coinbase had a stellar Super Bowl advertisement from a marketing perspective, channeling the attention of anyone at a bar or large gathering with their karaoke-style commercial that got crowds singing along, but that may be the only highlight to start the year for the cryptocurrency exchange. The stock price is down to $152 on Wednesday, with earnings ready to be announced on Thursday, February 12th. Coinbase (COIN) stock reached a low of $142.58 during the tariff market selloff of April 2025, and rallied as high as $444.64 just a few months later. Robinhood (HOOD) released earnings on Monday after the market closed, and the stock price is trading 11% lower on Tuesday. Coinbase is following suit with a sympathy selloff, down over 5% on the trading session.

Coinbase is expected to report an earnings-per-share (EPS) of around $1.15 on $1.96 billion in revenue on Thursday, February 12th.

Coinbase (COIN) Stock Downgraded by JP Morgan

As if Coinbase wasn't already facing a tough earnings call on Thursday, JP Morgan recently downgraded the December 2026 price target from $399 to $290 per share citing USDC growth slowdowns, and weak crypto trading volume. In the last earnings call in October 2025, the sentiment was pretty positive as the stock price was almost $200 higher than it's trading now. An excerpt from the shareholder letter tells the story:

While it can be true that Coinbase has delivered on expanding their product offering, it's still apparent that the stock price is closely tied to the interest and performance of popular cryptocurrencies like ethereum & bitcoin - the chart above shows the overlay of COIN stock compared to the price movement of the bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

Coinbase Earnings Implied Volatility 

Although it seems unlikely that COIN stock will rally during a bleak crypto environment, anything is possible with earnings announcements. The market could be expecting a horrible report, and yet the report could be less horrible than the market expects and the stock price can rally. We've seen it before and we'll see it again - that is the unknown, volatile nature of earnings calls. With that said, it's important to understand the options market and how that looks prior to an earnings call. We can see the implied volatility relative to the stock price for the week to determine the magnitude of the move priced in, and we can compare the weekly implied volatility to a later-dated cycle to weigh the earnings call against more time-based expiration cycles.

Looking at the chart above, we can see that COIN has an earnings implied volatility of +-$12.98. This is about 8.5% of the notional value of the stock price, which puts COIN earnings on the higher end of the range for this earnings quarter. Most companies have an implied volatility that falls within 5-10% of the stock price, with some higher and lower than that range. Looking further to the March 2026 expiration cycle, we can see a +-$26.60 implied stock price move, which is about 17% of the stock price. This tells us that about half of the implied volatility priced into the 37 day cycle is priced into the two day cycle. Even though implied volatility is high across the board in COIN stock, we're seeing a large implied volatility for this earnings announcement after the close on Thursday.

Bullish on Coinbase for Earnings

If you're bullish on COIN stock for earnings, you want the earnings call to be less dreary than expected. It feels like the market is expecting turmoil, especially after the downgrade from JP Morgan and Robinhood's failure to keep the stock afloat after their earnings call. If the EPS & revenue figures come in better than expected, we could see the stock price bounce off of recent lows.

Bearish on Coinbase for Earnings

If you're bearish on COIN stock for earnings, you expect that EPS & revenue figures will be missed, and the landscape of the crypto space is just too much for Coinbase to overcome at this time. Even though we could see a stock price rally down the road, a $66k bitcoin price is turning away active traders and that's impacting the bottom line for Coinbase to say the least.

Regardless of your assumption, be sure to tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live on Thursday, February 12th at 11am CST as we walk through bullish, bearish, and neutral options trade ideas ahead of the announcement after the close.

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb

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