CoreWeave Earnings Preview: Options Traders Expect 15% Move on Q4 Results
CoreWeave Earnings Preview: Options Traders Expect 15% Move on Q4 Results
- CoreWeave is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, February 26, after the market close.
- The earnings come amid a turbulent time in artificial intelligence stocks as AI agents threaten software stocks.
- Options traders see an expected move of +/- 15.21 points on earnings.
CoreWeave to report Q4 earnings on Thursday, February 26, amid AI market volatility
CoreWeave (CRWV) is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, February 26, after the market closes.
The artificial intelligence company provides GPU-powered infrastructure that is built specifically for AI workloads. CoreWeave's main customers include Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and OpenAI. Nvidia (NVDA) itself, which reports earnings on February 25, is also a customer.
CoreWeave IPO’d on March 28, 2025, in one of the most hyped-up public listings of the year. Since then, CoreWeave is up 144%, and up 37% since the start of this year. Its performance puts it well ahead of a nearly flat S&P 500.
The AI space has caused serious market disruptions as of late, with software as a service (SaaS) stocks coming under pressure due to the threat that AI poses to the software business model.
CoreWeave, as a provider of AI infrastructure, has been spared from this selloff, though it remains unclear how exactly the disruption could impact demand for chips. Still, volatility in the stock has increased amid the broader turbulence in the AI space.
The demand for AI chips continues to outpace supply. This was on display during CoreWeave’s third-quarter results when it revealed that its revenue backlog rose to $55.6 billion. A backlog isn’t the worst problem to have, because it shows that there is tremendous demand for its services.
Third-quarter revenue rose to $1.36 billion, a 134% year-over-year increase. According to TradingView, revenue is expected to cross the wires at $1.55 billion. That is an exceptional growth rate.
On an adjusted basis, CoreWeave saw a 61% EBITDA margin, exceeding most cloud companies. However, for a company that rents out hard assets, the depreciation on its assets totaled $630 million in the last quarter. Still, revenue continues to scale at a much faster pace.
Trading CoreWeave earnings
CoreWeave traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 47.4 on Tuesday, February 24. That means volatility is slightly below average compared to the past twelve months. Options show an expected move of +/- 15.21 points, or 15% of Tuesday’s 99.27 stock price. That is well above the average 5% to 10% earnings move for S&P 500 companies.
From Tuesday’s prices, the upside of that expected move would put CRWV near its yearly high from January 28 at 114.45, while the downside move would put prices near this week’s swing low of 84.50.
Technically, CRWV is trading above its 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), with Tuesday’s increase of about 9% pulling the stock price above the moving averages. Prices are challenging the February swing high of 100.69, and a positive earnings report would likely push prices above that level.
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