NVDA Earnings Preview: AI Revenue & Blackwell Demand

 NVIDIA Earnings Key Points 

• NVIDIA will report quarterly earnings on February 25

• Current implied volatility suggests a 6.5% stock price range in either direction

• NVIDIA is expected to report an earnings-per-share of $1.51 on $65 billion in revenue

• Ai Revenue forecasts, and Blackwell demand will be in focus for investors & traders alike

 

NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday, February 25th and expectations couldn’t be higher. Last quarter, NVIDIA smashed revenue records reaching a new record in quarterly revenue of $57.0 billion, up 22% from Q2 and up 62% from a year ago, and $51.2 billion of that came from Data Center revenue which was also up 66% from last year.

NVIDIA is expected to report an earnings-per-share (EPS) of $1.51 on $65 billion in revenue for the quarter, with the EPS estimate representative of 70%+ YoY growth. 

Jensen Huang, founder & CEO of NVIDIA, couldn’t have had higher remarks for the business & demand in the latest earnings’ press release: 

“Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out...Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.” 

It’s almost as if he ran into the press room from the office out of breath, offered those remarks, and ran back out to keep the AI train moving. 

Reading through the previous earnings report can make your head spin, as there are so many data center highlights with big-name tech companies. Here are a few that stood out to me, quoted from the press release:
 

• Partnered with industry leaders, including Google Cloud, Microsoft, Oracle and xAI, to build America’s AI infrastructure with hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs. 

• Revealed plans to accelerate seven new supercomputers, including with Oracle to build the U.S. Department of Energy’s largest AI supercomputer, Solstice, featuring 100,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, plus another system, Equinox, featuring 10,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs.

• Revealed that NVIDIA Blackwell achieved the highest performance and best overall efficiency in the SemiAnalysis InferenceMAX benchmarks, while delivering 10x throughput per megawatt compared with the previous generation.

NVIDIA executives & employees have a ton on their plate, and the world will be watching on Wednesday when they announce quarterly earnings figures and give guidance for the rest of 2026. 

Nvidia Stock Performance & Projections for 2026 

NVDA stock has chopped around for the most part in 2026, after opening the year at $189 and trading around $188 as of February 19th – the stock has had a $20 range for the entire year so far. With that said, the stock price is still hovering well above 2025 lows, after plummeting to sub-$100 levels during the tariff scare in April 2025: 

 

 

 

NVIDIA (NVDA) has a market cap of $4.44 trillion, which is the highest market cap on the US stock market. To put NVIDIA’s sheer size into context, Apple (AAPL) & Alphabet (GOOGL) each have a $3.7 trillion market cap, and the rest of the MAG7 stocks are lower in market cap. 

NVDA Earnings Implied Volatility 

Whether you’re bullish, bearish, or neutral on NVIDIA’s earnings report, it’s important to understand the implied volatility landscape of the earnings announcement. Implied volatility is derived from the options market and gives us a gauge on how wide or narrow the expected stock price range could be for an earnings announcement. We typically see a 5-10% expected stock price move for the earnings week, and we’re seeing a 6.5% implied move for the NVIDIA earnings week.

 

 

 

 

This +-$11.71 implied stock price range falls on the lower end of the range for earnings implied volatility, which tells us that the market isn’t expecting too much uncertainty or volatility from the announcement itself. It’s assumed that they will post massive EPS & revenue figures yet again, but the post-earnings move could come from a slowdown or acceleration in the narrative for 2026. Is the Blackwell demand sustainable? How will AI revenue change over time? These are the questions traders & investors will be focusing on for the earnings call. 

As we look further out in time, we can see the March expiration cycle boasts a +-$18.45 implied stock price move. This tells us that while the earnings' implied volatility is low, it still accounts for well over 50% of the implied volatility over the next 29 days. The market isn’t sleeping on the fact that there could be a surprise within the earnings call on Wednesday. 

Bullish on NVDA Stock for Earnings 

If you’re bullish on NVDA stock for earnings, your case is simple – you want to see double earnings beats from an EPS & revenue perspective, and you want to see strong, increased forecasts for the rest of the year. New partnerships with big-name brands won’t hurt either, but the bull case to new all-time highs has to come from solid foundational growth, and a tease for even more big numbers down the road. This is especially important since the stock is trading near highs now, and leads the way in market cap. 

Bearish on NVDA Stock for Earnings 

If you’re bearish on NVDA stock for earnings, you want to see less than favorable guidance for the rest of the year, and some kind of miss within the earnings details. It’s going to be hard for NVDA to miss EPS and/or revenue estimates given the massive demand and “sold out” status for many of their products and services, but with the stock near highs it won’t take much for investors to get spooked out of adding more bullish exposure to the high-flying tech stock. 

 

Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live at 11am CST on Wednesday, February 25th for an in-depth look at options strategies ahead of the earnings report, only on tastylive! 

 

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb

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