Intel Earnings Preview: Can the Chipmaker's Recent Rally Gain Traction?
Intel Earnings Preview: Can the Chipmaker's Recent Rally Gain Traction?
By:Mike Butler
- Intel reports quarterly earnings on April 23rd, after the market closes
- Intel is expected to announce an earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.01 on $12.2 billion in revenue
- INTC has been one of the worst performing large-cap tech stocks over the past two years, but a stellar comeback has played out over the past few months
- New CEO Lip-Bu Tan has sparked positivity, but the options market is pricing in a 10% implied move for earnings week
Intel (INTC) Earnings Preview – What You Need to Know
A few months ago, traders wondered if Intel would ever get back to $30 per share, as it bounced around 12-year lows at $20 per share. Just a few months later, and the stock price is back at $65, just shy of the all-time high of $69.28. INTC was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2024, which seemed to be the nail in the coffin for the struggling tech stock. Now, the market is pricing in a lot of optimism but paired with a 10% implied stock price move for the week; plenty can go wrong if the news doesn’t hit just right.
Intel has cut 15,000+ jobs and is making aggressive adjustments to operating expenses. At the same time, Intel Foundry operated at a $10+ billion loss in 2025. Something’s gotta give, and it seems the market is pricing the uncertainty this week and beyond. Alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, INTC began its recent price surge near the market bottom at the end of March. On April 9th, Intel and Google (GOOGL) expanded their collaboration on AI Infrastructure with Xeon CPUs and Custom IPUs. The stock price hasn’t looked back since. In the previous earnings call, executives warned of continued supply constraints that may hamper results going forward. With a reduction in both EPS & revenue projections this quarter, we may be seeing those constraints play out in real time.
Intel Implied Volatility Ahead of Earnings
If you’re bullish, bearish, or neutral on Intel earnings, it’s important to understand the options market and how it’s pricing in the earnings announcement this week. As of Monday, April 20th, INTC has a 10% implied stock price move for the week, with a +-$6.16 implied move on the $65 stock. This puts INTC on the higher end of earnings implied volatility, as most stocks fall in the 5-10% notional value range for the week of earnings. Looking further though, we can clearly see that there’s not much of a boost to the May options expiration, that has just a +-$9.66 implied stock price move. Looking even further to June, we can see just a +-$12.88 implied stock price move.
Bullish on Intel for Earnings
If you’re bullish on Intel earnings, you’re looking for strong earnings numbers and plans to fix the leaky faucet that is Intel Foundry Services (IFS). At such a staggering operating loss, there’s got to be a fix in place to create more meaningful upside exposure. Intel is pursuing major government and commercial contracts in this regard, which could prove to be a positive catalyst. New CEO Lip-Bu Tan is a semiconductor veteran, which could appeal to traders & investors alike. The recent stock price surge ahead of earnings is certainly a good sign, but most tech stocks have realized a decent rally with the historic move in the Nasdaq over the past few weeks.Bearish on Intel for Earnings
If you’re bearish on Intel for earnings, you might believe that the Foundry losses are too big to ignore, and stocks like AMD & NVDA are just much more enticing for the everyday investor or trader. Gross margin continues to be depressed between 36-38%, where 50%+ was a mark that Intel regularly posted previously. Intel eliminated their dividend a few years ago, which is a telling sign of financial struggle. If any EPS or revenue figure is missed on the call, paired with weak guidance, we could see the stock price fall hard from the recent rally.Join me on Options Trading Concepts Live at 11am CST for a deeper look at INTC options strategies for earnings, only on tastylive!
Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb
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