Nasdaq 100 Starts May on Stronger Footing After Meta and Microsoft Earnings Reports
Nasdaq 100 Starts May on Stronger Footing After Meta and Microsoft Earnings Reports
Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +1.47%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.24%
- Gold futures (/GC): -2.62%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): -1.12%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): -1.34%
Yesterday’s discouraging gross domestic product (GDP) report has left only a fleeting impact on markets, with traders turning the calendar to today with a more optimistic tone. Commentary from Trump administration officials who say a trade deal could be announced today has markets in a jovial mood, with “buy America” on the menu: Stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar are trading higher; gold is trading weaker.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESM5 | +0.91% |
/NQM5 | +1.52% |
/RTYM5 | -0.2% |
/YMM5 | +0.42% |
Earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) helped propel U.S. equity futures higher after-hours yesterday. And that enthusiasm was reinforced this morning when Trump administration officials said a tariff trade deal could emerge today. The Nasdaq 100 (/NQM5), believe it or not, finished April in positive territory; this is noteworthy because it’s the first time in history that we’ve seen greater than a 10% drawdown over a month for the Nasdaq 100 to finish that month in positive territory. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) report after the closing bell today.
Strategy: (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 17750 p Short 18000 p Short 21750 c Long 22000 c | 63% | +1335 | -3665 |
Short Strangle | Short 18000 p Short 21750 c | 69% | +6350 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 17750 p Short 18000 p | 83% | +585 | -4415 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTM5 | +0.06% |
/ZFM5 | +0.19% |
/ZNM5 | +0.24% |
/ZBM5 | +0.13% |
/UBM5 | +0.08% |
At least one half of the “recession classic” trading basket is working: U.S. Treasuries are continuing to rally quietly across the curve. While attention has been on the front-end because of the implications for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path, the bulk of gains in Treasuries has been occurring in the belly of the curve. At the long-end, both 10s (/ZNM5) and 30s (/ZBM5) continue to see a slow contraction in volatility as prices grind higher.
Strategy (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 108 p Short 109.5 p Short 115.5 c Long 117 c | 67% | +312.50 | -1187.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 109.5 p Short 115.5 c | 71% | +593.75 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 108 p Short 109.5 p | 88% | +140.63 | -1359.38 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCM5 | -2.62% |
/SIN5 | -0.72% |
/HGN5 | +0.88% |
One of the better signs that global trade tensions are on the verge of ratcheting down is that gold prices (/GCM5) are struggling mightily on the other side of a weaker 1Q’25 U.S. GDP report. The “recession classic” trading basket would call for long gold and long bonds, and yet traders are ignoring weaker growth figures and instead paying attention to the headlines. /GCM5’s one-month moving average (daily 21-EMA) comes in at 3248.
Strategy (55DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 2950 p Short 2975 p Short 3475 c Long 3500 c | 67% | +630 | -1870 |
Short Strangle | Short 2975 p Short 3475 c | 74% | +4790 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 2950 p Short 2975 p | 86% | +220 | -2280 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLM5 | -1.12% |
/HOM5 | -0.7% |
/NGM5 | +1.26% |
/RBM5 | -0.32% |
Energy markets have been double-tapped in recent days—signs of slowing demand from the world’s largest economy. And news from OPEC+ that Saudi Arabian producers are ready to ride out a period of low oil prices into the 40/brl range warns of escalating supply. Crude oil (/CLM5) is lower on the session but has cut its losses in half. With an IVR north of 90, oil hasn’t been this “tradeable” (from the vol perspective) since October 2024.
Strategy (46DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 46 p Short 48 p Short 68 c Long 70 c | 62% | +450 | -1550 |
Short Strangle | Short 48 p Short 68 c | 68% | +1770 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 46 p Short 48 p | 80% | +280 | -1720 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AM5 | -0.3% |
/6BM5 | -0.16% |
/6CM5 | -0.25% |
/6EM5 | -0.27% |
/6JM5 | -1.34% |
The Bank of Japan held its main rate at 0.5% overnight, and a peculiar line of commentary today about monitoring FX markets is hampering the Japanese yen (/6JM5). Alongside a drop in gold prices and the rally in equities, it appears traders are embracing a classic “risk on” mindset. It’s worth keeping an eye on the Canadian dollar (/6CM5), which despite the trade war headlines closed yesterday at its yearly high.
Strategy (63DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.0065 p Short 0.0066 p Short 0.0073 c Long 0.074 c | 68% | +262.50 | -987.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.0066 p Short 0.0073 c | 73% | +812.50 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0065 p Short 0.0066 p | 86% | +75 | -1175 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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