Nasdaq 100 Stages Turnaround Tuesday as Tariff Hopes Drive Rebound

Also, 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil and Australian dollar futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +4.15% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.63% 
3. Silver futures (/SI): +2.62% 
4. Crude ilo futures (/CL): +1.29% 
5. Australian dollar futures (/6A): +1.64% 

Hope springs eternal, even in bear markets. A turnaround Tuesday is afoot as traders see signs of de-escalation on the Trump tariff front. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s trip to Florida on Sunday to convince the President to refocus his message on “winning trade deals” has helped reframe the narrative and open a window of hope that the Trump administration will allow for some sort of runway to allow for negotiations to take place without throwing proverbial sand into the gears of global trade. Everything growth-related is on strong footing, from stocks to commodities to currencies. 

U.S. stocks rebounded today, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQM5) jumping nearly 4% in early trading. Sentiment shifted to the bullish side following a deep sell-off triggered by last week’s tariff announcement by the United States. Now, traders expect President Trump could ease his stance after signaling his willingness to make deals sooner than expected. Broadcom (AVGO) rose 8% after the chipmaker authorized a $10 billion share buyback program. Health care stocks rose after news that Medicare rates to insurers will increase over 5% next year, doubling the rate the previous administration proposed. 

Treasuries fell today, extending a decline from Monday when bonds came under heavy selling pressure. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) fell 0.54% in early trading. The Treasury will auction three-year notes today and 10-year notes tomorrow. Traders are closely watching the 10-year auction to gauge demand following the turbulence in the market. 

Silver futures (/SIK5) traded over 2% higher this morning, extending gains from Monday. Still, the metal has a lot of work to do after last week’s 16% drop, but prices above the 30 handle are encouraging for bulls, especially if sentiment holds up in the market. Still, tariff news flows can quickly come back into the fold and potentially derail the long trade.  

Crude oil prices (/CLK5) rose about 1% as prices moderated following a steep sell-off over the last few trading days. Yesterday, prices briefly fell below the 60 level and approached the point where many U.S. producers break even. This is a make it or break it moment for the U.S. crude complex, and the drill-baby-drill narrative is becoming increasingly doubtful amid economic metrics showing growth is slowing. Top that off with the latest tariffs and a substantial rebound is in doubt. For now, however, it seems most of the selling is done.  

A walk-back in the global trade war has led to a swell of interest in growth-related assets, with FX squarely in focus – though notably, there is a distinct anti-USD flavor as well. The Australian Dollar (/6AM5) is the top performer by a wide margin, riding the wave of enthusiasm seen in energy and metals. Despite the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, the Japanese Yen (/6JM5) is proving resilient on an otherwise risk-on session. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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