Netflix Earnings Preview - Price Hikes & Subscriber Growth

Netflix reports quarterly earnings on April 16th after the market closes
An earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.76 on $12.16 billion in revenue is expected – up 15% YoY
Advertising revenue is expected to be the big growth story of the quarter
If Subscriber growth can be sustained with price hikes, it could be a strong earnings quarter for Netflix

NFLX Stock Performance in 2026

NFLX stock opened the trading year at $94.13 after falling from a recent high of $134.12 in the middle of 2025. The stock reached a low point of $75.01 before vaulting back to over $100 per share in just a few weeks. NFLX now trades at $104 and seems to be gaining momentum. Netflix is expected to report an earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.76 on $12.16 billion in revenue is expected – up 15% YoY. The options market is pricing in a 6% implied move for the week, which is on the lower end relative to other tech stocks this quarter.

Advertising & Subscriber Growth in Focus

Many analysts are calling for a 100% increase in ad revenue for 2026 to $3 billion. That’s a huge increase, but Netflix has made a lot of efficiency improvements in expanded partnerships, ad strategy, AI integration, and much more live content. Last quarter, Netflix surpassed 325 million paid memberships, which is nearly equivalent to the number of citizens in the United States. Netflix prices continue to increase regularly, and that may turn members away. If they can sustain and even grow the subscriber base with these price hikes, it could be a good sign for the future of Netflix.

Implied Volatility Outlook for Netflix Earnings

The options market gives us a lot of information related to the earnings announcement itself, but also the weight the market is placing on the announcement relative to later-dated options expiration cycles. For this week, NFLX stock has a +-$6.30 implied range. This is about a 6% stock price move based on the current notional value of $104 per share. Most stocks land between 5-10% of the notional value for the week they report earnings, so NFLX is on the lower end of that range.

With that said, the June 2026 expiration cycle, 65 days away, has just a +-$11.53 implied range. This week’s earnings announcement makes up over 50% of that range, which tells us that even though the implied move is low for the week, it still makes up a huge chunk of the implied range for the next few months.

Bullish on NFLX Stock for Earnings

If you’re bullish on NFLX stock, you want to see an EPS & revenue beat, with increased or sustained subscriber growth amid the price hikes. This is a powerful combination if they can post it, and it may be what the stock needs to continue with the sharp recovery.

Bearish on NFLX Stock for Earnings

If you’re bearish on NFLX stock, you may be interested to hear about margin pressure from increased content spend and slowing subscriber growth. Increased prices paired with a reduction in subscriber count affects more than the baseline revenue – it would reduce ad revenue as well down the road, reaching a lower number of eyeballs.

Join me on Options Trading Concepts Live at 11am CST for a deeper look at NFLX options strategies for earnings, only on tastylive!

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb

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