NVIDIA Earnings Preview - Data Center, Rubin & Export Policy Outlook

Key NVIDIA Earnings Points

• NVIDIA reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, May 20th
• Quarterly revenue is expected to come in around $78.8 billion ($1.77 EPS), with Data Center revenue accounting for around $72.8 billion
• Around $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue is secured through the end of 2026
• Vera Rubin samples have been shipped, and Rubin is said to reduce inference token costs by 10x relative to Blackwell
• Jensen Huang joined Donald Trump's delegation to Beijing last week, but there is still a big question mark around NVIDIA's potential revenue in China

NVDA Stock Performance in 2026

NVDA stock has been on a tear recently, reaching a new all-time high of $236.54 just a few days ago. While the tech sector has had nothing short of a face-ripping rally to the upside, there is still plenty of implied volatility for this week's earnings announcement. With a +-$14.63 implied stock price range for this week, that accounts for just over 6% of the notional value of the stock price currently at $221. This is technically on the lower end of implied volatility for an earnings announcement as big as this, but we could still see some fireworks as NVDA earnings stands in its own tier relative to other companies reporting this week. 

NVIDIA Key Focal Points for Earnings

If you're an investor or trader paying attention to NVIDIA earnings, you're likely tuned into the data center story, but also the shiny new Vera Rubin Platform update. Rubin is expected to reduce inference toke costs by 10x compared to Blackwell, and production is set to begin in H2 FY2027. CapEx could be the story for NVIDIA, as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta almost doubled the figure spent in 2025. China is the wildcard here, and could be a push or pull factor for this earnings announcement. Jensen flew to Beijing on May 14th for a summit with Xi Jinping, but nothing concrete has come from that yet. The current guidance for Q1 assumes zero data center revenue from China, but this could be a $50 billion boost to revenue if it actually happens.

In the last earnings call, NVIDIA announced record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, up 20% from Q3 and up 73% from the previous year. Data Center revenue also hit a record high, accounting for $62.3 billion up 75% from a year ago. Full-year revenue hit $215.9 billion, and it seems the sky is the limit for NVIDIA. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, had positive words to offer on the call:
“Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today — delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token — and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further...Enterprise adoption of agents is skyrocketing. Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute — the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth.”

NVDA Earnings Implied Volatility

Looking at the implied volatility for an earnings announcement always helps us understand the context around the binary event itself. What is the expected move for earnings? What is the expected move this week relative to this month? All of these contextual clues give us more insight beyond the public perception. For this week, NVDA stock has a +-$14.63 implied move, which is just over 6% of the notional value of the stock price. 

We typically see earnings come in around 5-10% of the stock price, so this is on the lower end for earnings in isolation. However, we're only seeing a +-$24 implied move for June, and +-$30 implied move for July. This tells us that while the IV is low relative to the stock price, this week still makes up a massive chunk of the implied range price into the next two months. The market is placing a heavy weight on this week's earnings announcement based on IV differentials we're seeing.

Bullish on NVDA Earnings

If you're bullish on NVDA for earnings, you want to hear that Blackwell & Rubin are booked through 2027. This could result in a nice stable floor for the stock price, with a ceiling move reliant on China being green lit, and massive CapEx being confirmed. Revenue and EPS beats are almost expected at this point, but if they beat in a big way that could be a surprise to the market's expectations.

Bearish on NVDA Earnings

If you're bearish on NVDA earnings, you may think that all the positive sentiment is already priced in to the recent surge in NVDA's stock price. If China is off the table, and guidance falls below $86 billion, we could see a near-term ceiling on NVDA's stock price that's already rallied aggressively from the lows a few months ago. Rubin is the new & exciting development for NVDA, but any sort of delays could pop the hype balloon for NVDA over the next week or so.

Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live on Wednesday at 11am CST ahead of the announcement for an in-depth look at bullish, bearish, and neutral options trading strategies.

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb

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