Oracle Earnings Preview: Can the Tech Giant Keep the Rally Going?

Oracle is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday after the market closes.

• The tech giant signed a record $48 billion in sales contracts last quarter.
• Management is expected to report earnings per share of $1.64 on $15.58 billion in revenue.
• The stock has has had rallied 50% from from the low of April.

Oracle (ORCL) is one of the final tech companies to announce earnings for the quarter, and expectations are high for the software and cloud giant. The company’s stock price has realized volatility recently, reaching a low of $118.86 during peak tariff uncertainty. After opening the year at $168.52, the stock has rallied over 50% — all the way back from the low to $178 per share, about 6% higher than the opening print of 2025. Last quarter, it signed record sales contracts with many big-name companies thanks to the AI boom. Now, all eyes are on the stock price as it continues to climb ahead of the earnings call on Wednesday.

Oracle is expected to announce earnings per share (EPS) of $1.64 on $15.58 billion in revenue. The past two earnings calls resulted in a stock price sell-off, so the tech giant will look to right the ship and continue the huge bull run we've seen over the past month.

Oracle CEO Safra Catz spoke about factors that could potentially boost revenue in the last earnings call: “Oracle signed sales contracts for more than $48 billion in Q3 ... This record sales number pushed our Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, up 63% to over $130 billion. We have now signed cloud agreements with several world leading technology companies including: OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA and AMD. We expect that our huge $130 billion sales backlog will help drive a 15% increase in Oracle's overall revenue in our next fiscal year beginning this June. And we expect RPO to continue to grow rapidly — as we look forward to signing our first Stargate contract — yet another big opportunity for Oracle to expand both its AI training and AI inferencing businesses in the near future."

AI has already arrived, but it's still such a new and exciting space with a lot more potential. Larry Ellison, Oracle chair and chief technology officer echoed this sentiment: “We are on schedule to double our data center capacity this calendar year ... Customer demand is at record levels. Our Database MultiCloud revenue from Microsoft, Google and Amazon is up 92% in the last three months alone. GPU consumption for AI training grew 244% in the last 12 months. And we are seeing enormous demand for AI inferencing on our customers' private data. So, we are connecting OpenAI ChatGPT, xAI Grok and Meta Llama directly to Version 23ai of the Oracle Database with advanced vector capabilities. This new product, called the Oracle AI Data Platform, makes it easy for customers to use any of the world's leading AI models to analyze all of their private data — while keeping all their data private and secure."

These massive percentage increases in KPIs should surprise nobody, but Oracle still needs to deliver this week with a strong plan for sustainable growth into the future.

Looking at the implied volatility of the options market helps us put context around the market's expectation for this week and beyond.

With the stock hovering around $178, we're looking at an implied range of +/- $12.57 this week for the earnings announcement. At about 7% of the notional value of the stock price, this puts Oracle earnings in the middle of the typical 5%-10% range we see for most stocks reporting earnings. Looking to August, 67 days to expiration, we can see a +/- $19.68 implied stock price range. With this week's announcement making up a big chunk of the implied range through August, we can tell the market is expecting some big moves from this earnings call.

Bullish on Oracle stock for earnings

If you're bullish on Oracle stock for earnings, you really want to see an EPS and revenue beat, with strong commentary from the executive team. The stock is already up over 50% from the low in April, and it hasn't been a slow recovery. For the stock to continue higher toward all-time-highs, you really need to hear unbreakable words of strength and a strong report this quarter.

Bearish on Oracle stock for earnings

If you're bearish on Oracle stock for earnings, you want to see some kind of miss relative to expectations. Sometimes, it's as simple as that when a stock has a huge rally before an earnings call. The stronger the rally, the higher the expectations — and if those expectations are not met we could see the stock price fall.

Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live on Wednesday, June 11 at 11. am CST before the market closes for an in-depth look at Oracle options trading strategies ahead of earnings.

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb  

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