Shopify Earnings Preview: Stock Drops as Canadian PM Visits White House
Shopify Earnings Preview: Stock Drops as Canadian PM Visits White House
Shares in the e-commerce platform fell 4% today. The company reports earnings Thursday.
- Shopify is set to report earnings before the market opens on Thursday.
- Analysts expected a move of 11.3% for earnings, above the average S&P 500 earnings move.
- Meanwhile, a trade deal between U.S. and Canada may be underway this afternoon as Prime Minister Mark Carney visits the White House.
Shopify (SHOP)—the Canadian e-commerce platform—is scheduled to report fiscal first quarter earnings on Thursday, before the market open. The stock fell over 4% on today, as broader market sentiment declined.
Like most stocks, Shopify has been hit by the recent market decline from trade war tensions. Since reaching its 2025 high in February, the stock is down about 27%, but steeper losses were trimmed from early April when the stock was down as much as 45% over the same period.
The trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada remain unresolved but Prime Minister Mark Carney visited the White House today, signaling the two countries are moving closer toward a deal. Still, an expected slowdown in the economy may impact Shopify’s profitability over the short term.
What do analysts expect?
According to TradingView, analysts anticipate Shopify will post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25 for the first quarter. That would be up from a year ago when the company posted an EPS of $0.20. Last quarter, its EPS came in at $0.42.
Revenue is expected to cross the wires at $2.26 billion. That would be up from $1.88 billion a year ago. Shopify generated $2.80 billion in its fourth quarter. The holiday season is the reason for the higher revenue figure in Q4.
Analysts are neutral to bullish on Shopify stock. There are 33 strong buy and buy ratings, 18 hold ratings, and three sell and strong sell ratings. The average one-year price target was 115.26, representing a 22% increase from the current stock price.
Notably, Cathie Wood’s ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) has bought about $10.3 million worth of Shopify stock since the start of the year.
Trading Shopify earnings
SHOP traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 48.5 today, about average compared to the last year of trading. The options market shows an expected move of +/- 10.66 points for the earnings move. That is about 11.3% of the current stock price, putting it above the average 5%-10% move for S&P 500 companies.
On a technical basis, Shopify is trading just below its 50-day simple moving average. Prices dropped from the pseudo 50% retracement level from its 2025 high and low from January to February. However, the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) is providing some support going back to mid-April, which can help to support prices during the current downturn. A disappointing earnings move may send the price back to levels traded in early April, which would be at the lower limit of the expected move.
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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