Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Preview

• Tesla is set to report quarterly earnings on January 28th, after the market closes
• The EV company is expected to report an earnings-per-share of $0.45 on $24.78 billion in revenue
• While auto sales decline, the energy division has shown significant growth & demand
• Earnings implied volatility reflects a 5.5% stock price move in either direction

Recent TSLA Stock Performance

Tesla stock has been on a wild ride over the past year, reaching a low of $214 in April 2025 during the tariff selloff, and surging to a recent high of $498 in December 2025. The stock price has sold off since then, currently sitting at $432. Tesla is expected to post an earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.45 on $24.78 billion in revenue. While EV deliveries continue to slide, the stock price sits near highs. This is an interesting turning point for Tesla share holders, as there is clearly more to the story than electric vehicles.

In the previous earnings report, there was still positive sentiment with a focus on vehicle deliveries and the energy sector. Many analysts believe that there will be a sizable shift toward energy production & storage, as that is most in line with AI demand these days, and could explain why the stock price remains elevated while the EV sector is clearly struggling relative to past projections:

"We continue to launch new products that excite our customers across automotive and energy. We launched the Model YL and Model Y Performance and further expanded our vehicle offering with the Model 3 and Model Y Standard, our most affordable vehicles. We also unveiled the Megapack 3 and Megablock, which will further simplify large battery installations by reducing cost and time to deploy. We believe our scale and cost structure will enable us to navigate the shifting market dynamics across the globe more effectively than our peers, with advances in AI making our products the most compelling in the market. Our focus remains on scaling our core hardware business by maximizing our deliveries and deployments, as these products will deliver increasing value to our customers over time via services powered by AI. Every Tesla vehicle delivered today is designed for autonomy while every Tesla energy storage product is capable of being enhanced and optimized by our virtual power plant or Autobidder functionality. We continue to deliver a fleet of products that brings AI into the real world as we pursue a future of sustainable abundance as outlined in our Master Plan Part IV."

Tesla Earnings Implied Volatility

While earnings narratives swirl, we can always look to the options market for a more objective view of the earnings impact on the stock price. Typically, we see an implied volatility that represents between 5-10% of the notional value of the stock price for most earnings announcements. TSLA stock currently has a 5.5% implied stock price move for this week, which is low considering the high-flying sentiment TSLA stock typically has. With just a +-$23.90 implied move for this week, we could see a very muted stock price move for earnings this quarter:

With that said, we are only seeing a +-$40.82 implied stock price move through the February cycle, so even though this earnings announcement is on the lower end of notional stock price movement, it still makes up a big chunk of what's expected over the next month.

Bullish on TSLA Stock for Earnings

For those looking for an upside move on TSLA stock following the earnings announcement, you'll want to see an EPS & revenue beat followed by strong guidance by really any Tesla business sector. If they do mention the energy space and how they're shifting focus toward AI energy, it could be seen as a bullish indicator for the stock price floor, as the AI space is clearly in demand.

Bearish on TSLA Stock for Earnings

If you're bearish on TSLA for earnings, you want to see struggling EV sales & deliveries, and more of a cloudy forecast for the rest of 2026. The stock price is already near highs, and we could see a large fallout considering the low implied volatility environment for this earnings announcement. Low IV typically translates to complacency and nothing surprising on deck, so a big stock selloff would oppose the status quo.

Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live on Wednesday, January 28th at 11am CST for an in-depth look at earnings strategies for TSLA stock!

Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb

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