United Airlines Earnings Preview: Soft Landing Ahead?
United Airlines Earnings Preview: Soft Landing Ahead?
By:Mike Butler
United Airlines (UAL) Earnings Preview
- United Airlines will report quarterly earnings on October 15th after the market closes
- United is expected to announce an earnings-per-share of $2.68 on $15.3 billion in revenue
- UAL stock is up over 100% from April tariff lows
- Executives will look to build on strong momentum to round out 2025
United Airlines is a top airline choice for anyone that lives in Chicago and travels through O'Hare, and that's reflected in the surging stock price that's now up about 10% from the opening print of 2025. That doesn't tell the whole story though, as the stock price dropped as low as $52 per share during tariff uncertainty in April. UAL stock is currently sitting strong at $103 per share and has a 6% implied stock price move for this week based on the options market implied volatility.
United is expected to announce an earnings-per-share (EPS) of $2.68 on $15.3 billion in revenue for the quarter. Traders & investors alike are interested in what executives have to say after the quarterly figures are released. In the previous earnings call, United CEO Scott Kirby had positive words of encouragement for the rest of the year:
"Our second-quarter performance was more proof that the United Next strategy is working. I am extremely proud of the team for executing a strong operation and navigating through a volatile macroeconomic period, while still growing earnings and pre-tax margin for the first half of the year...Importantly, United saw a positive shift in demand beginning in early July, and, like 2024, anticipates another inflection in industry supply in mid-August. The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year."
UAL Options Implied Volatility
Looking at the implied volatility of the options market can always help us put context around the market expectation for the announcement. We typically see implied moves that equate to 5-10% of the stock price for the week of an earnings announcement. This week, UAL is on the lower end at 5.6% with a +-$5.86 implied stock price move at a $103 stock price point.
While the earnings implied volatility is quite low for the announcement, there is still a 15% projected stock price range through the end of 2025 - this tells us that even though we may see lighter movement this week, we should still expect to see some volatility through the end of the calendar year.
Bullish on United Airlines for Earnings
If you're bullish on United for earnings, you want to hear a strong demand narrative from executives in the conference call, and you want to see an EPS & revenue beat when the earnings figures come out. The recent market selloff could create skittish investors & traders, but the broad market has recovered quickly from the large selloff we saw on October 10th. A strong holiday travel demand forecast could keep this propped up stock price afloat, or even send it to new annual highs.
Bearish on United Airlines for Earnings
If you're bearish on UAL stock for earnings, you're looking for a slowdown in forecasts and a miss in EPS or revenue results relative to estimates. The stock price has surged 100% from April lows, so investors & traders may want to see a rock solid earnings report to keep that trend going - even a slight miss or weak forecast could send the stock tumbling considering the strength of the bullish move we've seen so far.
Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live at 11am CST on Wednesday, October 15th for a full United Airlines earnings preview with options trading strategies.
Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been trading the markets for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb
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