S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Meander as Traders Await FOMC Minutes and Nvidia Earnings
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Meander as Traders Await FOMC Minutes and Nvidia Earnings
Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil and Australian dollar futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.14%
- 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.61%
- Gold futures (/GC): +0.17%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.41%
- Australian dollar futures (/6A): -0.37%
The turn through the middle of the week is thus far lacking excitement. Traders have good reason to sit on their hands: The biggest event risk of the week is just around the corner. today’s calendar is marked by the release of the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes after lunch, while the global AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) will announce its 1Q ’25 earnings report after the closing bell. Elsewhere, President Donald Trump has been talking about ending government involvement with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – read what we had to say last week.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESM5 | -0.14% |
/NQM5 | +0.04% |
/RTYM5 | -0.59% |
/YMM5 | -0.07% |
S&P 500 futures fell slightly today after rallying on yesterday to start the week following an extended holiday weekend. Okta (OKTA) plunged over 13% this morning after the software company maintained its guidance. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting are scheduled for release this afternoon, which also has the ability to shift sentiment in the market.
Strategy: (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5500 p Short 5600 p Short 6300 c Long 6400 c | 63% | +1025 | -3975 |
Short Strangle | Short 5600 p Short 6300 c | 69% | +3187.50 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5500 p Short 5600 p | 81% | +537.50 | -4462.50 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTM5 | -0.06% |
/ZFM5 | -0.17% |
/ZNM5 | -0.25% |
/ZBM5 | -0.61% |
/UBM5 | -0.83% |
The 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) fell 0.75% this morning after government bond yields surged in Japan overnight following a weak 40-year auction. A five-year note auction is in focus for bond traders today. The underlying yield for the 30-year bonds is trading at the 5% mark. Meanwhile, the US government is working a tax and spending package through the legislature, and bond traders are following it closely.
Strategy (58DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 105 p Short 106 p Short 118 c Long 119 c | 66% | +250 | -750 |
Short Strangle | Short 106 p Short 118 c | 73% | +1156.25 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 105 p Short 106 p | 84% | +140.63 | -859.38 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCM5 | +0.17% |
/SIN5 | -0.05% |
/HGN5 | -1.03% |
Gold prices (/GCQ5) were little changed in early US trading following a dip in prices below the 3,300 mark yesterday. The Fed minutes along with today’s bond auction may influence the metal’s direction. Later this week, US inflation data will be in focus for precious metals traders. The price of gold has lagged since hitting an all-time high back in late April. Additionally, the strength of the dollar is working against the price of gold today.
Strategy (61DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 3075 p Short 3100 p Short 3575 c Long 3600 c | 65% | +710 | -1790 |
Short Strangle | Short 3100 p Short 3575 c | 72% | +4630 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 3075 p Short 3100 p | 83% | +370 | -2130 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLM5 | +1.41% |
/HOM5 | +1.11% |
/NGM5 | +7.27% |
/RBM5 | +0.98% |
Crude oil prices (/CLN5) rose as supply concerns shifted back into focus today. The United States issued a new permit for Chevron (CVX) to maintain its assets in Venezuela, but the authorization does not allow for the company to export oil outside of the country. Meanwhile, OPEC members are expected to announce this week they will extend output hikes into July. The threat of Canadian wildfires is also threatening supply. Tehran has also hinted it would allow US inspectors into the country if talks between Iran and the US continue to move in a positive direction.
Strategy (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 52 p Short 54 p Short 71 c Long 73 c | 66% | +420 | -1580 |
Short Strangle | Short 54 p Short 71 c | 71% | +1530 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 52 p Short 54 p | 81% | +270 | -1730 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AM5 | -0.37% |
/6BM5 | -0.23% |
/6CM5 | -0.19% |
/6EM5 | -0.2% |
/6JM5 | -0.31% |
Australian dollar futures (/6AM5) fell 0.34% in early trading. Australia reported higher-than-expected inflation data, but markets continue to price in a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in July. The markets will get another inflation report and jobs report before the July decision, so those odds still have the potential to shift. For now, however, the RBA appears to be on track to deliver a rate cut later this summer.
Strategy (36DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.635 p Short 0.64 p Short 0.65 c Long 0.655 c | 30% | +340 | -160 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.64 p Short 0.65 c | 55% | +1180 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.635 p Short 0.64 p | 64% | +180 | -320 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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