Traders Expect Big Move for Best Buy on Q1 Earnings
Traders Expect Big Move for Best Buy on Q1 Earnings
The large-ticket retailer’s report can help gauge demand for big-ticket goods when consumer confidence is down
- Best Buy is scheduled to report Q1 earnings on Thursday, before the market open.
- Tariffs and trade woes may have pulled forward purchases into the January to March period.
- Prices have retaken key moving averages over the past week, indicating strength in short term momentum.
Best Buy (BBY) is set to report first quarter fiscal earnings before the market opens on Thursday. The large-ticket retailer’s earnings are being closely watched by the market to help gauge consumer demand at a time when consumer confidence dipped to multi-year lows amid the ongoing trade war.
However, consumers may have pulled their purchases forward in anticipation of the tariffs, which may have given Best Buy a boost in the first quarter. Most goods sold by Best Buy come from abroad, particularly from China. While there is currently a pause on the initially high tariff rates between the United States and China, consumers faced the threat of higher prices from those tariffs in the January through March period.
The retailer will likely see some relief from tariffs. The White House announced an extension to the tariff pause with the European Union this week. This news follows a similar move by the US regarding tariffs on China.
What do investors anticipate?
Analysts expect Best Buy’s first quarter to yield earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, according to TradingView. That would compare to an EPS of $1.20 a year ago and to $2.58 for the fourth quarter.
Revenue is expected to come in at $8.81 billion, down slightly from revenue of $8.85 billion a year ago. Last quarter, Best Buy reported revenue of $13.95 billion, although that quarter captured holiday spending.
Analysts hold a neutral to bullish view of Best Buy stock, with 10 strong buy and buy ratings and 17 hold ratings. There is one strong sell rating on the stock and one sell rating. The average one-year price target is 84.11, or 17% higher than today’s 72.01 stock price.
Trading Best Buy earnings
Best Buy traded with an implied volatility rank (IVR) of 49.1 yesterday, meaning volatility is about average compared to the last year of trading. The options market shows an expected move of +/- 5.62 points, or 7.8% of the current stock price. That is on the higher range of the average 5% to 10% move expected for an S&P 500 company.
Best Buy is down about 16% from the start of the year. That compares to a nearly unchanged performance in the S&P 500. Technically, BBY has recovered from its 2025 low reached back in early April, but it’s failed to gain the momentum seen in the broader market.
The stock is trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but prices managed to trade above its 50-day SMA last week. Prices also eclipsed the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages over the last week, indicating some strengthening in shorter-term momentum.
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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