Exxon and Chevron to Report Earnings as Crude Oil Prices Slip

Can these oil giants weather the crude oil sell-off?

• Exxon Mobil and Chevron are set to report earnings on Friday before the market open.
• The reports come as the oil market looks at the biggest monthly decline since November 2021.
• The options market expects relatively small moves for XOM and CVX after the earnings announcements.

Two of the largest oil heavyweights—Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)—are scheduled to report earnings on Friday before the market open.

The earnings reports come at a dire time for the oil market, with prices (/CLN5) set to make the biggest monthly decline since November 2021. Traders started to sell crude oil at the start of April as the expected affects of tariffs injected a heavy sense of fear into the market. Those fears materialized after the U.S. GDP report, released today, showed a contraction in Q1 economic activity.

While the pullback in April’s crude oil prices won’t be captured in the reports from XOM and CVX—because the fiscal period ran through January to March—the drop in prices will likely influence managements’ outlooks for profits and spending.

A notable example came today from oil giant British Petroleum (BP). The oil major reported a miss on profits for its first quarter, but perhaps more concerning is that management announced that share buy backs will likely be reduced through 2027. BP dropped over 2% through mid-day trading today.

While the earnings reports from XOM and CVX likely won’t be stellar given the recent moves in oil prices, commentary from management could be insightful and will thus help traders gauge the outlook for oil production as we approach the second half of the year.

What do analysts expect from XOM and CVX?

According to TradingView, analysts expect Exxon Mobil’s earnings per (EPS) share to come in at $1.75 on $86.35 billion in revenue. That would compare to an EPS of $2.06 a year ago, representing a decline of about 15% over the year.

Despite the pullback in oil prices, analysts remain mostly bullish on XOM’s stock price. 17 analysts have a strong buy or buy rating on the stock, 10 have a hold rating and only one gave it a sell rating. The average one-year price target is 123.83, representing a 17.7% gain from the current price.

For CVX, analysts expect EPS to cross the wires at $2.16, which would be down from $2.93 a year ago. Revenue is expected to come in at $48.25 billion, down from $48.72 billion a year ago.

Analysts are slightly more bullish on CVX, with 15 strong buy and buy ratings, 10 hold ratings and one strong sell rating. The average one-year price target is 167.40, or a 23.5% gain from the current price.

Trading XOM

XOM made a 50% retracement from its sell-off following the March swing high, but prices failed at the level, which was also marked by a previous zone of support that was in place through the first couple months of the year. However, prices bounced from the March low, indicating that some buyers were ready to step in to buy the dip.

Still, prices are trading below the 9- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) as well as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). If prices hold the March low levels, it could provide an opportunity for bulls to press higher should earnings impress. Otherwise, a break below the level could introduce additional weakness to allow prices to test the April lows around the 98 handle.

The expected move for XOM based on the May 2 options expiration is for +/- 3.12 points, or about 2.9% of the current stock price. That is well below the average 5%-10% move for an earnings-based move in S&P 500 companies.

Trading CVX

CVX is in a more precarious position than XOM on a technical basis. The stock price carved out fresh 2025 lows earlier this month in April, and prices accelerated lower ahead of earnings in a potential push to challenge those lows. Prices are trading firmly below the 9- and 21- day EMAs as well as the 50-day SMA.

The options market expects a +/- 3.94 point move, or a 3% move of the current stock price. Again, that’s well below the average move seen for earnings from S&P 500 companies. Bulls will have to hold the recent lows to ward off further selling pressure.

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater

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