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Win 90% of Your Trades (at a cost), Study These Indicators ASAP and These Recession Indicators Release in The Next 4 Weeks | tastylive Weekly Roundup

By:Eric Villa

Our best stories on YouTube this week

  • It's possible to win the vast majority of your trades, but that's not necessarily the most efficient approach.
  • Use these trading indicators to become 10 times as aware of the market.
  • Comparing September 2023 to September 2008 reveals surprising similarities.
  • Recession watch: these numbers will make or break the global economic growth narrative.

The dark side of winning 98% of trades

If you had the opportunity to win 97% of your trades, would you worry about the catch? This week, we've analyzed trades with winning probabilities as high as 90% to understand the potential costs associated with such high success rates. To delve into the less glamorous side of winning, click on the video above.

Ditch technical analysis—look at these indicators 

Studying technical analysis patterns is an imperfect science, yet the research team at tastylive has conducted a comprehensive study that goes beyond mere price indicators. In this study, we investigates the relationship between volatility, implied volatility, price and market conditions. If you're interested in understanding how options contract prices may fluctuate following a market correction, or if you want to establish a data-backed directional bias, then this is for you. Click the video above to gain valuable insight that could potentially enhance your trading strategies.

2023 vs. 2008—a macro expert on the rise of zombie banks

September is shaping up as an intriguing month, potentially marked by volatility and higher yields that could pose risks to certain institutions. From the ongoing instability in the Chinese real estate market to macro patterns that bear an uncanny resemblance to the fall of 2008, it's crucial to discern between mere noise and factors that will genuinely influence the markets. Chris Vecchio, Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista offer their thoughts on this week's Let Me Explain. Stay informed and motivated, traders!

Dollar buying to heat up if recession fears hit the markets

It’s official. The global economy is bucking substantial headwinds. Four basic factors will determine whether stocks will fall and the dollar will rise in the coming months. As central bankers around the world attempt to manage inflationary forces, watch these factors for signs of change: 

  1. PMI numbers: The purchasing manager index (PMI) is an indicator of economic growth dynamics. The upcoming release of August PMI numbers is crucial in assessing the state of the business cycle and its impact on various markets, such as stocks, currencies, commodities and interest rates.
  2. Eurozone recession risk: The Eurozone is at risk of entering a recession, with consecutive months of contraction in the composite index. Germany, the largest economy on the continent, has already experienced a decline in GDP. Expectations for the August PMI numbers suggest further contraction or slower growth in the Eurozone.
  3. U.S. resilience: The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with economic data consistently outperforming expectations. However, concerns remain regarding inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's ability to combat it. The PMI numbers for the U.S. are expected to show steady growth but at a slightly slower rate.
  4. Impact on central banks: tastylive’s head of Global Macro, Ilya Spivak, suggests central banks may face challenges in managing inflation expectations while also stimulating economic growth. The possibility of stronger PMI numbers could reinforce the idea that central banks are not ready to loosen monetary policy, which could lead to a global recession. This scenario could have implications for various assets, with defensive assets potentially benefiting while cyclical and growth-sensitive assets may face downward pressure.

Eric Villa is a YouTube specialist at tastylive. 

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

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