Nasdaq 100, 30-year T-Bonds, Gold, Crude Oil and Canadian Dollar Futures
Nasdaq 100, 30-year T-Bonds, Gold, Crude Oil and Canadian Dollar Futures
This Morning’s Five Futures in Focus
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.03%
- 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): +0.13%
- Gold (/GC): +0.12%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.76
- Canadian dollar futures (/6C): +0.24%
The dollar is taking a break going into the weekend on Friday morning after comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who stated that monetary policy looks to be in the appropriate place.
Meanwhile, European equities continued to sell off overnight as Europe faces deepening economic woes. China is also facing renewed pressure as the yuan sinks to a near record low versus the dollar following a reference rate cut, which signals that Chinese officials are comfortable with more downside, for now.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESU3 | +0.01% |
/NQU3 | -0.04% |
/RTYU3 | +0.03% |
/YMU3 | -0.02% |
U.S. equity indices are mostly unchanged despite Asian and European markets selling off overnight. Apple has dented the strength holding up technology stocks amid the Chinese government's move to ban the devices in the country. Still, investors are likely to continue to favoring U.S. equities compared to their overseas counterparts, which should help keep prices afloat.
Strategy: (6DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 15100 p Short 15150 p Short 15450 c Long 15500 c | 35% | +605 | -395 |
Long Strangle | Long 15100 p Long 15500 c | 41% | x | -2510 |
Short Put Vertical | Long 15100 p Short 15150 p | 65% | +305 | -695 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTZ3 | +0.07% |
/ZFZ3 | +0.09% |
/ZNZ3 | +0.14% |
/ZBZ3 | +0.32% |
/UBZ3 | +0.40% |
Treasury bonds are on track to lock in their losses for the week, as bonds across the curve are steady this morning, in line with equites. Rate hike odds increased earlier this week on strong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. But recent comments from notable Federal Reserve members have cooled those bets. Still, monetary policy expectations are in a precarious position as growth in Asia and Europe show signs of cooling, while the U.S. economy holds up in a rather resilient way. A key bond yield spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasuries tightened to levels not seen since May.
Strategy (14DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 118.5 p Short 119 p Short 124 c Long 124.5 c | 56% | +218.75 | -281.25 |
Long Strangle | Long 118.5 p Long 124.5 c | 28% | x | -765.63 |
Short Put Vertical | Long 118.5 p Short 119 p | 62% | +203.13 | -296.88 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCZ3 | +0.12% |
/SIZ3 | +0.03% |
/HGZ3 | -1.14% |
Gold (/GCZ3) is inching higher this morning as the dollar and Treasury yields soften ever so slightly. Silver is experiencing its biggest weekly percentage drop since June. The high-flying dollar has dissuaded investors from the metals, and the greenback is likely to go even higher as conditions abroad deteriorate. Those economic headwinds have seriously dented copper prices, which are down nearly 4% for the week.
Strategy (48DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 1935 p Short 1940 p Short 1950 c Long 1955 c | 10% | +460 | -40 |
Long Strangle | Long 1940 p Long 1950 c | 47% | x | -5,080 |
Short Put Vertical | Long 1935 p Short 1940 p | 61% | +240 | -270 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLZ3 | +0.35% |
/NGU3 | +1.63% |
Crude oil (/CLV3) traded $0.72 higher, or 0.83%, Friday morning as traders see a tightening market after a week filled with bullish developments for the commodity. U.S. inventory prints surprised traders this week, dropping much more than expected. Moscow and Riyadh also announced extensions to their voluntary production cuts at the start of the week. This has pushed oil prices to the highest mark since November. A stronger dollar hasn’t done much to stop the oil rally, and it probably won’t anytime soon, given that the U.S. is now a net energy exporter.
Strategy (39DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 86 p Short 86.5 p Short 87.5 c Long 88 c | 9% | +460 | -40 |
Long Strangle | Long 86.5 p Long 87.5 c | 48% | x | -5,430 |
Short Put Vertical | Long 86 p Short 86.5 p | 50% | +240 | -260 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AZ3 | +0.07% |
/6BZ3 | -0.12% |
/6CZ3 | -0.16% |
/6EZ3 | +0.14% |
/6JZ3 | +0.31% |
The Canadian dollar (/6C) is making a comeback this morning after August jobs data showed a gain of 40,000 jobs, beating estimates calling for +15,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also failed to tick higher, as expected. While the dollar is ceding ground against most of its peers this morning, that isn’t the case for the Chinese yuan. A cut to the reference rate signaled to traders that the Chinese government is comfortable with further losses, which is surprising with the currency already near record lows.
Strategy (28DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.71 p Short 0.715 p Short 0.755 c Long 0.76 c | 90% | +30 | -470 |
Long Strangle | Long 0.71 p Long 0.76 c | 4% | x | -30 |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.71 p Short 0.715 p | 97% | +20 | -480 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.