five futures in focus

Nasdaq 100 is Off Highs After Hot CPI and Jump in Jobless Claims

By:Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Also 30-year T-bond, silver, crude oil and Japanese yen futures

five futures intraday performance

  1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.5% 
  2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.41% 
  3. Silver futures (/SI): +0.99% 
  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.3% 
  5. Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.56% 

Weekly U.S. jobless claims and the September U.S. consumer price index (CPI) both came in on the wrong side of expectations, showcasing an unexpected jump in claims while price pressures were warmer than forecasted. Neither stocks nor bonds are particularly fond of the data mix, with both down across the board (with notable underperformance by the Russell 2000). Commodities are swinging higher again on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar, which is down against most of its major counterparts. 

Symbol: Equities 

Daily Change 

/ESZ4 

-0.38% 

/NQZ4 

-0.5% 

/RTYZ4 

-1.59% 

/YMZ4 

-0.33% 

U.S. equity futures declined after the inflation report, with Nasdaq futures (/NQZ4) falling 0.5% ahead of the New York open. Delta Airlines (DAL) fell 1% in pre-market trading after the airline said it expects lower demand around the election. 10X Genomics (TXG) plummeted nearly 30% after offering preliminary revenue figures that showed year-over-year sales declines. Generac Holdings (GNRC) trimmed 3% from its weekly gain this morning after Milton passed through Florida. 

Strategy: (50DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 5600 p 

Short 5625 p 

Short 6050 c 

Long 6675 c 

61% 

+525 

-725 

Short Strangle 

Short 5625 p 

Short 6050 c 

69% 

+5325 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 5600 p 

Short 5625 p 

59% 

+237.50 

-1012.50 

/NQZ4

Symbol: Bonds 

Daily Change 

/ZTZ4 

+0.07% 

/ZFZ4 

+0.06% 

/ZNZ4 

-0.03% 

/ZBZ4 

-0.41% 

/UBZ4 

-0.7% 

Bonds fell after today’s consumer price index (CPI) data further complicated the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path. The 30-year T-Bond futures contract (/ZBZ4) fell near the 120 handle, which marks levels not traded since July. While CPI isn’t the Fed’s official inflation barometer, the data will likely weigh on policymakers’ decisions. A 30-year Treasury auction is scheduled for later today. The higher yields could help to attract some international demand for the offering.  

Strategy (43DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 114 p 

Short 116 p 

Short 126 c 

Long 128 c 

65% 

+515.63 

-1484.38 

Short Strangle 

Short 116 p 

Short 126 c 

70% 

+1156.25 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 114 p 

Short 116 p 

82% 

+328.13 

-1671.88 

/ZBZ4

Symbol: Metals 

Daily Change 

/GCZ4 

+0.49% 

/SIZ4 

+0.99% 

/HGZ4 

+0.28% 

Silver futures (/SIZ4) brushed off this morning’s inflation report, rising about 0.34% in morning trading. Still, the metal remains down nearly 5% this week, on track for the biggest loss since July. A higher dollar and rising Treasury yields have punished the long side of the trade despite some tailwinds from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The 30 handle may offer some support, and the long-term outlook for the metal remains intact. Traders were excited earlier this week by a report that Russia, for the first time ever, would add silver to its reserves.  

Strategy (46DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 26.5 p 

Short 27.5 p 

Short 34 c 

Long 35 c 

65% 

+1300 

-3700 

Short Strangle 

Short 27.5 p 

Short 34 c 

71% 

+4000 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 26.5 p 

Short 27.5 p 

85% 

+495 

-4505 

/SIZ4

Symbol: Energy 

Daily Change 

/CLZ4 

+1.3% 

/HOZ4 

+0.83% 

/NGZ4 

-1.2% 

/RBZ4 

+1.67% 

Crude oil futures (/CLX4) rose this morning to bring the commodity’s weekly performance to a nearly unchanged level. Hurricane Milton crossed Florida overnight. The evacuation helped fuel demand for gasoline this week, with many stations running out. Yesterday’s inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a 5-million-barrel increase in crude oil stocks for last week, with that build likely coming from a bottleneck on exports from the previous week when storm activity interrupted shipping lanes.  The EIA, earlier this week, also cut its demand growth forecast for next year, reflecting a slightly softer economic outlook.  

Strategy (36DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 72 p 

Short 72.5 p 

Short 75.5 c 

Long 76 c 

13% 

+370 

-130 

Short Strangle 

Short 72.5 p 

Short 75.5 c 

48% 

+5630 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 72 p 

Short 72.5 p 

 

 

 

/CLZ4

Symbol: FX 

Daily Change 

/6AZ4 

+0.04% 

/6BZ4 

-0.14% 

/6CZ4 

-0.39% 

/6EZ4 

+0.01% 

/6JZ4 

+0.56% 

Japanese yen futures (/6JZ4) bounced after hitting a fresh three-month low, rising about 0.5% ahead of the U.S. opening bell. Japan reported higher wholesale inflation overnight, helping to firm up bets on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance. The rebound cut the weekly loss for the currency. With little data left from Japan this week, the dollar will likely drive price action, and several Fed speakers are scheduled to speak before the weekend, which could spark some swings in price action.  

Strategy (29DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 0.0067 p 

Short 0.006725 p 

Short 0.00685 c 

Long 0.006875 c 

25% 

+237.50 

-75 

Short Strangle 

Short 0.006725 p 

Short 0.00685 c 

55% 

+1700 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 0.0067 p 

Short 0.006725 p 

65% 

+125 

-187.50 

/6JZ4

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

Trade with a better brokeropen a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies. 


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.