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Nasdaq 100 Pulls Back as Traders Await Nvidia Earnings

By:Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Also, 5-year T-note, gold, crude oil, and Canadian dollar futures 


Nasdaq, 5-year T-note, gold, crude oil, Canadian dollar futures 
Nasdaq, 5-year T-note, gold, crude oil, Canadian dollar futures 

  1. Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures (/NQ): -0.26% 

  2. Five-year T-note futures (/ZF): +0.06% 

  3. Gold futures (/GC): -0.28% 

  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -1.48% 

  5. Canadian dollar futures (/6C): -0.33% 


Traders are biding their time at the start of the week, awaiting the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report on Wednesday afternoon.

U.S. equity markets are effectively treading water, with each of the four major indexes basically unchanged on the week. Bond yields are modestly lower ahead of a bevy of Fed speakers today. A stronger U.S. dollar may be weighing on USD-denominated commodities, which are otherwise retaining recent current trajectories (higher prices). 

Symbol: Equities 

Daily Change 

/ESM4 

-0.06% 

/NQM4 

-0.26% 

/RTYM4 

-0.55% 

/YMM4 

+0.02% 


Nasdaq 100 edges down

Volatility is on the floor (the VIX has a 12-handle) and traders are awaiting the AI bellwether’s results on Wednesday, leading to curtailed price action and a relatively staid situation.

The winners from yesterday are the losers today, and vice versa; the Nasdaq 100 (/NQM4) is off by just over one-quarter of a percent. Once NVDA earnings happen, a flurry of trading activity on Thursday may be the only day worth trading intraday.

Strategy: (38DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 17250 p 

Short 17500 p 

Short 20000 c 

Long 20250 c 

62% 

+635 

-4365 

Short Strangle 

Short 17500 p 

Short 20000 c 

64% 

+1840 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 17250 p 

Short 17500 p 

86% 

+245 

-4755 


Nasdaq 100 (/NQM4)


Symbol: Bonds 

Daily Change 

/ZTM4 

+0.02% 

/ZFM4 

+0.06% 

/ZNM4 

+0.1% 

/ZBM4 

+0.24% 

/UBM4 

+0.3% 


Treasury markets wait

Treasury markets are in wait-and-see mode as nearly half a dozen Fed speakers are set to hit the lecture circuit today. There are no noteworthy auctions today, although there is a 20-year bond auction tomorrow. The 2s10s spread remains tethered near -40-bps. Fed funds futures (/ZQZ4) are discounting 35-bps of cuts by the end of the year, while three-month SOFR futures (/SR3Z4) are pricing in 43-bps of cuts.  

Strategy (31DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 104.75 p 

Short 105 p 

Short 107.5 c 

Long 107.75 c 

64% 

+70.31 

-179.69 

Short Strangle 

Short 105 p 

Short 107.5 c 

70% 

+226.56 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 104.75 p 

Short 105 p 

92% 

+31.25 

-218.75 


Fed funds futures (/ZQZ4)


Symbol: Metals 

Daily Change 

/GCM4 

-0.28% 

/SIN4 

-1.27% 

/HGN4 

+1.4% 


Small dent in precious metals rally

A stronger U.S. dollar may be provoking some short-term profit taking in precious metals, but a small dent in the face of a robust rally in recent months is nary a concern.

Gold prices (/GCM4) continue to make progress outside of a bullish symmetrical triangle, while silver prices (/SIN4) are holding near their highest level since January 2013. Elsewhere, copper prices (/HGN4) are holding over $5 per pound, having just set a new all-time high yesterday. 

Strategy (35DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 2300 p 

Short 2325 p 

Short 2550 c 

Long 2575 c 

65% 

+650 

-1850 

Short Strangle 

Short 2325 p 

Short 2550 c 

71% 

+2380 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 2300 p 

Short 2325 p 

87% 

+240 

-2260 


Gold prices (/GCM4)


Symbol: Energy 

Daily Change 

/CLM4 

-1.48% 

/HOM4 

-1.51% 

/NGM4 

-3.49% 

/RBM4 

-1.2% 


Energy prices move lower

Energy prices are down across the board as technical selling pressure may have kicked in.

Crude oil prices (/CLM4) reversed lower after failing to retake the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, while natural gas prices (/NGM4) dropped after tagging the high close of 2024. The weekly US API crude oil stock change report is due out later today. 

Strategy (57DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 70 p 

Short 71 p 

Short 86 c 

Long 87 c 

64% 

+250 

-750 

Short Strangle 

Short 71 p 

Short 86 c 

71% 

+1480 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 70 p 

Short 71 p 

83% 

+140 

-860 


Crude oil prices (/CLM4)


Symbol: FX 

Daily Change 

/6AM4 

-0.07% 

/6BM4 

-0.07% 

/6CM4 

-0.33% 

/6EM4 

-0.11% 

/6JM4 

+0.02% 


Canadian dollar drops

The U.S. dollar is stronger across the board, save against the Japanese yen (/6JM4), which may be enjoying a tailwind from lower yields and weaker energy prices.

But attention this morning is on the Canadian dollar (/6CM4), the weakest performer in the wake of the April Canada inflation report. The sharp drop in Canadian inflation pressures has seen BOC rate cut odds jump, weighing on /6CM4 just as it has failed to clear meaningful technical resistance. 

Strategy (45DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 0.715 p 

Short 0.72 p 

Short 0.745 c 

Long 0.75 c 

63% 

+110 

-390 

Short Strangle 

Short 0.72 p 

Short 0.745 c 

67% 

+230 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 0.715 p 

Short 0.72 p 

93% 

+45 

-455 


 Canadian dollar (/6CM4)

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

Trade with a better brokeropen a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies. 


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