uploaded image

Nasdaq 100 Surges After NVDA Earnings Beat Expectations

By:Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Also 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil and Japanese yen futures

Nasdaq, 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil, Japanese yen futures

  1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +2%
  2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.13%
  3. Silver futures (/SI): +0.18%
  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.69%
  5. Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.26%

Yesterday was an important litmus test of what matters more to markets right now: the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path or the AI narrative. The latter won handily. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings beat in every aspect possible, sending U.S. equity market futures surging higher post-market, which has continued this morning. But bonds remain weak following the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, leaving precious metals hanging in the balance. Catalysts on the earnings and economic calendars are few and far between the rest of the week.

Symbol: Equities

Daily Change

/ESH4

+1.34%

/NQH4

+2%

/RTYH4

+0.05%

/YMH4

+0.58%

Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQH4) moved sharply higher this morning as bulls digest yesterday’s earnings report from Nvidia. The chipmaker beat expectations and guidance expectations and is on track to add over $200 billion to its market cap. This is also dragging the broader market higher and even helped to prop up technology shares in overnight trading in Asia and Europe.

Strategy: (35DTE, ATM)

Strikes

POP

Max Profit

Max Loss

Iron Condor

Long 17200 p

Short 17500 p

Short 18700 c

Long 19000 c

50%

+2335

-3665

Short Strangle

Short 17500 p

Short 18700 c

61%

+6140

x

Short Put Vertical

Long 17200 p

Short 17500 p

76%

+1085

-4915

Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQH4)

Symbol: Bonds

Daily Change

/ZTH4

-0.10%

/ZFH4

-0.16%

/ZNH4

-0.13%

/ZBH4

+0.11%

/UBH4

+0.35%

10-year T-Note futures (/ZNH4) moved lower after yesterday’s FOMC minutes reaffirmed the view that the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates until later this summer. The 10-year yield is breaching levels not traded since November, albeit at a slow pace. The bond markets have mostly priced in the slower rate cuts at this point, and traders may be looking for a turnaround soon if upcoming data points to more progress on prices. Today, Treasury will auction 4- and 8-week bills, along with 30-year TIPS.

Strategy (64DTE, ATM)

Strikes

POP

Max Profit

Max Loss

Iron Condor

Long 107 p

Short 107.5 p

Short 112.5 c

Long 113 c

54%

+187.50

-312.50

Short Strangle

Short 107.5 p

Short 112.5 c

64%

+859.38

x

Short Put Vertical

Long 107 p

Short 107.5 p

85%

+93.75

-406.25

10-year T-Note futures (/ZNH4)

Symbol: Metals

Daily Change

/GCJ4

+0.01%

/SIH4

+0.18%

/HGH4

-0.13%

Silver prices (/SIH4) were nearly unchanged ahead of the Wall Street open, with rising yields across the short- and middle-end of the curve weighing on the outlook for precious metals. With a week left in February, the metal is on track to record a third monthly loss, although the 22 handle appears to be providing some support. But the Treasury market will have to see the selling stop to help prove a turnaround for metals.

Strategy (39DTE, ATM)

Strikes

POP

Max Profit

Max Loss

Iron Condor

Long 2010 p

Short 2020 p

Short 2090 c

Long 2100 c

43%

+520

-480

Short Strangle

Short 2020 p

Short 2090 c

61%

+2600

x

Short Put Vertical

Long 2010 p

Short 2020 c

76%

+270

-730

Gold Futures

Symbol: Energy

Daily Change

/CLH4

-0.69%

/HOH4

-1.36%

/NGH4

-3.84%

/RBH4

-1.43%

Crude oil futures (/CLH4) are little changed this morning despite renewed tensions in the Red Sea, with British authorities stating that a vessel off the coast of Yemen was struck by two missiles launched this morning by Hothis. However, yesterday’s big gain in crude inventories in the United States seems to be offsetting the risks to the oil market. Traders have their eyes on today’s data due this morning from the Energy Information Administration.

Strategy (55DTE, ATM)

Strikes

POP

Max Profit

Max Loss

Iron Condor

Long 72 p

Short 73 p

Short 81 c

Long 82 c

38%

+570

-430

Short Strangle

Short 73 p

Short 81 c

58%

+3520

x

Short Put Vertical

Long 72 p

Short 73 p

68%

+290

-710

Crude oil futures (/CLH4)

Symbol: FX

Daily Change

/6AH4

-0.01%

/6BH4

-0.09%

/6CH4

-0.04%

/6EH4

-0.02%

/6JH4

-0.26%

Yen bulls can’t catch a break. Japanese yen futures (/6JH4) are down again, challenging February lows as hopes for a pivot from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) get pushed back. Next week will bring inflation data to the island nation, but the calendar for the rest of this week is light for the yen, leaving prevailing trends likely to go unchallenged. Meanwhile, the weak yen is helping Japan’s stock market to hit multi-decade highs.

Strategy (43DTE, ATM)

Strikes

POP

Max Profit

Max Loss

Iron Condor

Long 0.0065 p

Short 0.00655 p

Short 0.00695 c

Long 0.007 c

70%

+112.50

-512.50

Short Strangle

Short 0.00655 p

Short 0.00695 c

74%

+362.50

x

Short Put Vertical

Long 0.0065 p

Short 0.00655 p

91%

+43.75

-581.25

Japanese yen futures (/6JH4)

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.