Nasdaq 100 Finds New Monthly Lows Despite Nvidia Earnings Beat

Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil and Australian dollar futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.15% 
2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.29% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): -1.34% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.56% 
5. Australian dollar futures (/6C): -0.84% 

U.S. equity markets have been treated to a volatile open today. Plunging at the cash equity open, all four indexes found themselves in the red. And yet, at the time of writing, an equally impressive turnaround was afoot. In other words, more of the same for markets which have been jerked around by reactions to minor data releases and headlines out of the White House regarding tariffs. Tariff talk is likewise helping resuscitate a recently beleaguered U.S. dollar.  

U.S. equity futures fell this morning after President Donald Trump announced tariffs will move forward on Canada and Mexico with an effective date of March 4. That headline overshadowed this morning’s GDP print that showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Nvidia (NVDA) fell about 3.5% in early trading after the chipmaker offered margin guidance that was slightly softer-than-expected. Ebay (EBAY) fell over 10% after providing soft guidance. Salesforce (CRM) also fell in early trading, shedding over 4% after providing weak full-year guidance. Snowflake (SNOW) gained over 7% on upbeat guidance following its earnings report.  

Bond prices were slightly lower this morning, although gains for the week remain intact. Earlier losses were trimmed after this morning’s GDP data showed consumer spending in the fourth quarter remained robust. However, U.S. unemployment applications rose to the highest point for 2025. The weak macroeconomic outlook as the world enters the U.S.-led trade war has pushed traders into bonds as fears of economic uncertainty grow. The ICE BofA MOVE Index, referred to as the VIX for bonds, rose to its highest level since mid-January.  

Gold prices (/GCJ5) slipped after this morning’s data and news flowed across the wires. Traders have tomorrow’s PCE data in focus, which could influence the direction of the metal given that it is often used as a hedge against inflation. A stronger dollar is likely one reason to pin on the losses in precious metals this morning, but the bullish technical structure remains in place. Some chop ahead of inflation data isn’t too surprising. Prices are on track to record the first weekly loss of the year.  

Crude oil prices (/CLJ5) rebounded today despite some headlines out of China that suggest a slowdown in imports for the first two months of the year. Oil prices are trading below the 70 handle after concern over economic growth amid tariff talks pushed traders to sell the commodity. A build in fuel products in a government report out of the U.S. this week punished crack spreads, which represent refiners’ theoretical margin. If that continues, it could affect upstream demand for oil as those fuel producers could be less incentivized to keep capacity up.  

Chinese tariff talk by President Trump, the prospect of new capital controls in China and signs that economic growth is slowing alongside inflation are proving to be a deleterious mix for the Australian dollar (/6AH5). The Aussie is now the worst performing major currency of the week, although the recalibrated tariff timeline throws into question any recent rallies by the Canadian dollar (/6CH5) and the Mexican peso (/6MH5). Volatility remains high in FX futures, with the Japanese yen (/6JH5) having the lowest IVR at 34 – higher than any IVR seen in equity index futures. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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