Phew! The Odds of Human Extinction by 2100 Do Not Exceed 6%!
Phew! The Odds of Human Extinction by 2100 Do Not Exceed 6%!
By:James Melton
MATHBOX, courtesy of Luckbox magazine
- Apocalypse by 2100? Might happen. Probably won't.
- A catastrophe is a bit more likely, forecasts say.
- 'Superforecasters' are more optimistic than 'experts.'
Will the human species be extinct by the year 2100? The chance is low, but undeniably greater than zero, according to a compilation of forecasts that benchmark the risk of apocalypse.
Earlier this month, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) released a 755-page report analyzing the results of its Existential-Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), held in June through October of 2022. Depending on your personal level of pessimism, the results could be reassuring, terrifying or anything in between.
The tournament included 169 participants divided into two groups: One group consisted of “80 specialists on long-run existential risks to humanity,” referred to as “experts.” The second was a group of 89 participants described as “seasoned forecasters with a track record of predictive accuracy on shorter-run questions,” aka “superforecasters.”
Tournament organizers asked participants to forecast the likelihood of global risks of human extinction or "catastrophe" related to nukes, biological hazards or AI. XPT defines catastrophe as an event that, within five years, causes the death of more than 10% of humans.
Results vary, so will reactions
Here’s some of what the experts and superforecasters predicted:
- The median expert predicted a 20% chance of a “catastrophe” (of any kind) and a 6% chance of human extinction by 2100. The median superforecaster was more optimistic, predicting a 9% chance of catastrophe and a 1% chance of extinction by 2100.
- The median expert put the chance of a nuclear catastrophe by 2100 at 8%. The median superforecaster, put the odds at 4%.
In short, the experts give long odds to the likelihood of an extinction-level of catastrophic disaster by 2100—and superforecasters are even more optimistic.
For adherents of the 1% Doctrine (attributed to Dick Cheney by Ron Suskind), the correct response to a 1% chance of an existential threat is to treat it as a certainty. So, the report offers no comfort for them. Those in the not-so-paranoid community might have varied reactions.
Some of the "good" news here: The median expert said the odds of nuclear extinction at just 0.55%, while the median superforecaster percentage was a tiny 0.074%.
More about XPT
To recruit and select experts, the FRI contacted organizations working on existential risk. That included relevant academic departments, research labs at major universities and "companies operating in these spaces." It also reached participants via blogs, Twitter and other means.
To recruit superforecasters, FRI worked with Good Judgment Inc. (GJI), a company that provides paid forecasting services.
Of the 169 XPT participants, 111 finished all parts of the tournament.
The bottom line here is that the modern world is dangerous. That's unlikely to change. It could be time to learn to stop worrying and love the uncertainty of it all.
James Melton is managing editor of Luckbox magazine.
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.