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Factful forecasting, Soft-Landing Opportunities and Iron Ore

By:James Melton

A weekly look inside Luckbox magazine

The new issue includes a mashup of two of our favorite movements: Factfulness and Superforecasting.

Ground your forecasting in facts

The 93-year-old oracle of Omaha seems to find stocks a bit pricey. Warren Buffett's firm, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), reduced its stock holdings by $28.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, according to Newsweek. Does that mean a recession is coming in 2024? Your call is as good as ours. To help you make one, Luckbox is here to help with its upcoming annual forecasting issue.

luckbox magazine winter 2023

The new issue includes a mashup of two of our favorite movements: Factfulness and Superforecasting. Factfulness aims to dispel commonly held misconceptions, while Superforecasters begin by making predictions based on accurate information and move on from there. Read the whole story.

A soft landing could ignite a stock rally

In the mid-1990s, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a perfect soft landing for the U.S. economy. Back then, the stock market performed well in the wake of the Fed’s rate hike cycle and ensuing rate cuts, and the underlying economy remained resilient.


If the Fed can pull off another soft landing in 2024, the stock market will likely produce another year of positive gains. But if a hard landing materializes, the stock market could correct by 15%-20% at some point this year or early 2025. Read the whole story.

Higher prices could boost iron miners

Iron ore prices have rallied by about 30% since August and are currently trading at an 18-month high. And experts expect iron ore miners such as BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO) and Vale (VALE) to get a Q4 earnings boost from the recent upswing in prices.

Many of the major iron ore miners reported better than expected earnings in Q3 of 2023. With iron ore prices spiking by 30% in the interim, Q4 earnings should be even better.

Demand for iron ore has been historically tied with the relative strength of the global economy, indicating the first “green shoots” of a potential economic rebound may be sprouting.

During periods of robust economic growth, demand for steel and iron ore tend to increase, driving prices higher. Conversely, economic downturns can lead to reduced demand and lower prices for these two metals. Read the whole story.

James Melton is managing editor of Luckbox magazine. @JDMeltonWriter

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