S&P 500 Rebounds as Israel-Iran Tensions Stabilize
S&P 500 Rebounds as Israel-Iran Tensions Stabilize
Also, two-year T-note, gold, crude oil, and Japanese yen futures
S&P 500 e-mini futures (/ES): +0.79%
Two-year T-note futures (/ZT): -0.17%
Gold futures (/GC): +0.01%
Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.93%
Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.64%
A robust but rebuffed Iranian attack against Israel over the weekend has not led to fears that a broader regional war may transpire.
Energy futures are lower, giving breathing room for a rebound in stocks, which are turning their attention back to earnings season. The lack of demand for safe havens, coupled with a hot March U.S. retail sales report, has pushed bonds to their lows of the year.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESM4 | +0.79% |
/NQM4 | +0.85% |
/RTYM4 | +0.34% |
/YMM4 | +0.77% |
Stock volatility is modest
U.S. equity markets have shrugged off the weekend geopolitical risk, with volatility coming in modestly across the board. Vixpiration is this Wednesday, however, and volatility typically stays elevated into the event.
Earnings are increasingly in focus now that the big banks are in the rearview mirror. 84% of companies are beating their revenue estimates, according to FactSet.
Strategy: (46DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 4900 p Short 4925 p Short 5475 c Long 5500 c | 63% | +292.50 | -957.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 4925 p Short 5475 c | 69% | +2150 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 4900 p Short 4925 p | 85% | +137.50 | -1112.50 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTM4 | -0.17% |
/ZFM4 | -0.44% |
/ZNM4 | -0.68% |
/ZBM4 | -1.26% |
/UBM4 | -1.52% |
Treasuries drop
The drop in demand for safe-haven assets is nowhere more apparent than in the bond market, where Treasuries are down across the curve. The March U.S. retail sales report offered more evidence that the Federal Reserve should be in no rush to start its rate cutting cycle.
Rate-cut odds for June have dropped below 20%, and the first cut isn’t discounted until September. In terms of Treasury auctions this week, there is a 20-year bond on Wednesday and a five-year TIPS on Thursday.
Strategy (39DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 100.5 p Short 100.75 p Short 102.5 c Long 102.75 c | 62% | +93.75 | -406.25 |
Short Strangle | Short 100.75 p Short 102.5 c | 67% | +281.25 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 100.5 p Short 100.75 p | 94% | +62.50 | -437.50 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCM4 | +0.01% |
/SIK4 | +1.78% |
/HGK4 | +2.07% |
Precious metals hang on to gains
Despite the geopolitical unclenching at the start of the week, precious metals have held onto their recently robust gains.
Gold prices (/GCM4) are hovering in positive territory while silver prices (/SIK4) continue to race towards the 2021 high near 30. Elsewhere, in what may be a sign that the recent run-up in commodities is not just geopolitically driven, copper prices (/HGK4) tested their highest level since June 2022 earlier today.
Strategy (43DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 2200 p Short 2225 p Short 2500 c Long 2525 c | 65% | +620 | -1880 |
Short Strangle | Short 2225 p Short 2500 c | 72% | +2820 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 2200 p Short 2225 p | 86% | +270 | -2230 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLM4 | -0.93% |
/HOK4 | -1.21% |
/NGK4 | -3.28% |
/RBK4 | -0.77% |
Crude oil drops
The reduction in perceived geopolitical risk is making itself apparent in energy markets, where crude oil prices (/CLM4) are off nearly 1% at the start of the week. Yet /CLM4 has not yet been able to pierce the swing lows from the past week near 84, suggesting that traders aren’t ready to fully remove their geopolitical hedges just yet; an Israeli response to Iran appears within the realm of possibility.
Strategy (31DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 77 p Short 78 p Short 91 c Long 92 c | 61% | +270 | -730 |
Short Strangle | Short 78 p Short 91 c | 70% | +1530 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 77 p Short 78 p | 81% | +140 | -860 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AM4 | +0.36% |
/6BM4 | +0.28% |
/6CM4 | +0.34% |
/6EM4 | +0.08% |
/6JM4 | -0.64% |
The dollar shows weakness
The U.S. dollar is mostly on its backfoot today as traders drop the world’s reserve currency and shift back into riskier fiat.
There is one exception however: the Japanese yen (/6JM4), which is at fresh yearly and multi-decade lows, perhaps in part due to the sharp uptick in U.S. Treasury yields today. Nevertheless, the bond market reigns supreme; if U.S. yields keep escalating, U.S. dollar weakness may not persist for long.
Strategy (53DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.0063 p Short 0.00635 p Short 0.00675 c Long 0.0068 c | 60% | +175 | -450 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.00635 p Short 0.00675 c | 69% | +675 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0063 p Short 0.00635 p | 84% | +87.50 | -537.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2025 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.