S&P 500 Gyrates as the Dollar’s Strength Persists
S&P 500 Gyrates as the Dollar’s Strength Persists
Also five-year T-note, gold, crude oil, and Australian dollar futures
S& 500 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.06%
Five-year T-note futures (/ZF): +0.23%
Gold futures (/GC): -0.29%
Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.25%
Australian dollar futures (/6A): -0.68%
Appetite for risk surged this week after the Federal Reserve and other central banks tempered hawkish expectations around monetary policy.
The Dow Jones (YMM4) and S&P 500 (/ESM4) are on track to record their best weekly performances of the year, up 2.64% and 2.24% as of this morning.
Treasuries are up for the fourth consecutive day, and equities are taking a breather ahead of the opening bell. Virtually zero event risk is left before the weekend, so price action to start the day should reveal a potential trend.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESM4 | -0.07% |
/NQM4 | -0.12% |
/RTYM4 | -0.45% |
/YMM4 | -0.15% |
Dow jones futures (/YMM4) are trading nearly unchanged this morning, down only 0.15% ahead of the opening bell. Strength in industrials has helped carry the index to a record high after the Fed updated its growth forecast earlier this week.
Stocks like Caterpillar (CAT), up over 5% on the week, have helped to fuel the risk-on move in the industrial-heavy index. The S&P 500 (/ESM4) is also on track to record its best week, down 0.07%, although stocks like Nike (NKE) are weighing on sentiment in retail stocks.
Strategy: (39DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5,240 p Short 5,250 p Short 5,350 c Long 5,360 c | 20% | +375 | -130 |
Short Strangle | Short 5,250 p Short 5,350 c | 50% | +5,275 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5,240 p Short 5,250 p | 63% | +162.50 | -325 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTM4 | +0.06% |
/ZFM4 | +0.23% |
/ZNM4 | +0.33% |
/ZBM4 | +0.79% |
/UBM4 | +1.01% |
Bonds yields fell across the curve today as rate traders continue to reprice markets to align with the Fed’s latest economic and inflation forecasts. There are no auctions left in the week from the Treasury and little event risk on the calendar until next week, which leaves the prevailing trend for more pressure on yields intact. The five-year T-note futures (/ZTM4) is up 0.23% at the opening bell.
Strategy (35DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 102 p Short 102.125 p Short 102.625 c Long 102.75 c | 28% | +156.75 | -93.75 |
Short Strangle | Short 102 p Short 102.125 p | 45% | +593.75 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 102 p Short 102.125 p | 88% | +78.13 | -171.88 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCJ4 | -0.29% |
/SIK4 | +0.09% |
/HGK4 | -0.90% |
Gold prices are acting in a manner similar to equity markets, with traders taking a breather despite yields being down.
Still, gold (/GCJ4) remains near its recent all-time highs and holds near the 2,200 level. The stronger dollar, developed from a weak Australian dollar, Swiss franc and Chinese yuan, is likely holding the precious metals group back today.
Strategy (34DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 2,160 p Short 2,165 p Short 2,185 c Long 2,190 c | 13% | +430 | -80 |
Short Strangle | Short 2,165 p Long 2,185 p | 51% | +5,280 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 2,160 p Short 2,165 p | 70% | +170 | -330 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLJ4 | -0.25% |
/HOJ4 | +0.03% |
/NGJ4 | -0.82% |
/RBJ4 | +0.20% |
Crude oil prices (/CLJ4) were little changed this morning, down 0.25%, as negotiations between Israel and Hamas develop into something that could lead to a ceasefire, according to statements from U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to target each other’s energy infrastructure, marking an escalation in tactics.
Strategy (29DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 79 p Short 79.5 p Short 82 c Long 82.5 c | 20% | +380 | -120 |
Short Strangle | Short 79.5 p Short 82 c | 50% | +2,980 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 79 p Short 79.5 p | 60% | +190 | -310 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AM4 | -0.68% |
/6BM4 | -0.38% |
/6CM4 | -0.32% |
/6EM4 | -0.39% |
/6JM4 | +0.30% |
The Australian dollar futures (/6AM4) fell against the dollar, which remains underpinned by this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision that upgraded economic growth and inflation forecasts but kept its rate forecasts unchanged.
A steep drop in the yuan overnight may also be another driver for Australian dollar weakness, although the broader lull in risk taking is likely the driving factor. In any case, it looks like dollar strength is here to stay to end the week.
Strategy (42DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.64 p Short 0.645 p Short 0.66 c Long 0.665 c | 39% | +290 | -210 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.645 p Short 0.66 c | 56% | +860 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.64 p Short 0.645 p | 76% | +130 | -370 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2025 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.