S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Eye All-Time Highs; VIX Near 4-Month Low
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Eye All-Time Highs; VIX Near 4-Month Low
Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and British pound futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): +0.35%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.18%
- Gold futures (/GC): -0.27%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.46%
- British pound futures (/6B): +0.58%
The summer melt-up continues. US equity markets are barely a stone’s throw away from new all-time highs in the futures market, even as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is already there in today’s session. Low volume, low volatility and positive technical drift remain in place, a remarkable change in behavior compared to where we’ve been over the past two weeks with respect to volatility and participation. Mixed US economic data is weighing on the bond market and the US dollar: The final 1Q ’25 US gross domestic product (GDP) reading was revised lower to -0.5% annualized.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.35% |
| /NQU5 | +0.24% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.4% |
| /YMU5 | +0.35% |
Stocks continued to drift higher this morning as the risk-on mood following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran bolstered sentiment. Traders were also encouraged by data on jobless claims and durable goods orders. Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQU5) rose 0.30% in early trading. Micron (MU) traded higher ahead of the bell, but traders trimmed gains in the first few minutes of cash trading. McCormick (MKC) rose over 5% after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
| Strategy: (64DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 22100 p Short 22200 p Short 23000 c Long 23100 c | 18% | +1520 | -480 |
| Short Strangle | Short 22200 p Short 23000 c | 49% | +19965 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 22100 p Short 22200 p | 59% | +640 | -1360 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | +0.09% |
| /ZFU5 | +0.19% |
| /ZNU5 | +0.18% |
| /ZBU5 | +0.3% |
| /UBU5 | +0.34% |
Treasuries rose this morning to extend gains from earlier in the week. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) rose 0.35% to outpace gains on the shorter end of the curve. President Trump is considering announcing his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by as early as September, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move could bring about earlier interest rate cuts. This morning’s jobless claims data also showed a high number of continuing claims, which could be seen as a sign of underlying trouble in the labor market.
| Strategy (57DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 112 p Short 113 p Short 117 c Long 118 c | 33% | +625 | -375 |
| Short Strangle | Short 113 p Short 117 c | 55% | +2609.38 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 112 p Short 113 p | 67% | +343.75 | -656.25 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | -0.27% |
| /SIU5 | +0.72% |
| /HGU5 | +2.89% |
Gold (/GCQ5) isn’t doing much, with prices lingering around the June lows. The 3,300 level remains unbroken, which is encouraging on a technical basis. However, a drop in Treasury yields and dollar weakness hasn’t been enough to spur any notable buying. For now, the risk-on move seen after the Israeli-Iran ceasefire has sapped the appeal for the metal. Traders may not push prices higher in the low-volatility environment.
| Strategy (61DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 3310 p Short 3315 p Short 3425 c Long 3430 c | 19% | +380 | -120 |
| Short Strangle | Short 3315 p Short 3425 c | 52% | +11870 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 3310 p Short 3315 p | 60% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLQ5 | +1.46% |
| /HOQ5 | +1.51% |
| /NGQ5 | +3.38% |
| /RBQ5 | +0.81% |
Crude oil prices (CLQ5) rose nearly 1% this morning. The Energy Information Administration said gasoline and diesel stocks fell last week, indicating summer demand season is finally picking up. Refinery activity was also elevated, which is good news for oil bulls heading into the July 4 holiday weekend. Traders will search out fair prices following the large swings seen throughout the war with Iran and Israel.
| Strategy (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 62.5 p Short 63 p Short 67 c Long 67.5 c | 18% | +390 | -110 |
| Short Strangle | Short 63 p Short 67 c | 50% | +4950 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 62.5 p Short 63 p | 54$% | +220 | -280 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | +0.64% |
| /6BU5 | +0.58% |
| /6CU5 | +0.63% |
| /6EU5 | +0.48% |
| /6JU5 | +0.6% |
British Pound futures (/6BU5) continue to show strength against the dollar, with prices rising 0.5% Thursday morning. It has more to do with dollar weakness than the pmkound itself, with news in the US dragging the greenback. Meanwhile, reports show some small and medium-sized businesses in the United Kingdom are trimming workers to help grapple with increased contributions for social security. Gov. Andrew Bailey has warned of risks to the labor market in recent testimony. For now, the pound appears unchallenged vs. most of its peers.
| Strategy (43DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.36 p Short 1.365 p Short 1.385 c Long 1.39 c | 27% | +2312.25 | -81.25 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.365 p Short 1.385 c | 57% | +1337.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.36 p Short 1.365 p | 67% | +118.75 | -193.75 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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