Where the Puck is Headed: 2024 Trading Outlook
Where the Puck is Headed: 2024 Trading Outlook
By:Mike Butler
Our tastylive hosts and resesarch team members face off with their best options trading ideas for the coming year
In 2023, we had almost a thousand articles hit the news and insights tab with a wide variety of subject matter. In 2024, our tastylive hosts and content writers look to plant their flag on a few different trading instruments for the year.
Tony Battista
S&P 500 Index (SPX) put broken wing butterflies (patent pending) paid me all year in 2023, so in 2024 I hope to be more aggressive each month and ring the register more in SPX.
Tesla (TSLA) was also very good to me with about any selling premium strategy.
But my biggest play? Never let Tom Sosnoff convince me to trade one of his "trades of the century"!
Jermal Chandler
It's likely that 2024 will be the third year in a row in which interest rates will be a focal point.
Therefore, I will be keeping an eye on financials, homebuilders and credit services that should be affected by the bond market changes. I also think crude oil (/CL) will become an interesting trade again if we somehow see consumption increase. Finally, I will be watching the Japanese yen futures (/6J) closely, as this could be the year where the finally adjust interest rates upwards as they potentially exit their yield curve control experiment.
Josh Fabian
I'm watching the tech sector in 2024. We had a concentrated rally in just a handful of tech stocks this year. If interest rates fall as the market is currently predicting, that could be a boost for the rest of the tech sector. I'm not expecting a repeat of what we saw this year in the Nasdaq 100, but we could have another good year with broader participation.
Ilya Spivak
Analysts expect interest rates to come down, as central banks reverse course on the blistering 2022-23 hiking cycle. That’s likely to results in the Japanese yen (/6J) outperforming against other currencies. It was sinking as the Bank of Japan sat on its hands while the Fed, the European Central Bank and others raced to tighten. As yield spreads come back in, that trend should reverse.
Vonetta Logan
2024 for me is all about media companies and consolidation in the streaming space.
Everyone is trying to compete with Netflix (NFLX). Expect more mergers and acquisitions. ("Would you like to form an alliance?") Also, expect more sports offerings from companies like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). Lionel Messi in a Ted Lasso reboot perhaps. And how will Disney (DIS) handle an imploding Marvel Cinematic Universe on top of a struggling ESPN?
Thomas Westwater
Energy markets, both crude oil (/CL) and natural gas (/NG), should remain volatile and present plenty of opportunities for traders in the coming year as escalating geopolitical tensions and dysfunction within OPEC look increasingly likely.
Low global inventories also leave oil prices vulnerable to supply shocks. I'll be watching to fade any extreme moves and sell volatility where I can.
Nick Battista
Price influences sentiment. We've gotten the rocket ship move to the upside to end the year, bringing in a perfect time for a pullback early 2024.
I think the trade of the year will be in the beat up "mid-tier" names that haven't participated in the Magnificent 7 rally. Catch up trades in stocks like Disney (DIS), Target (TGT), Nike (NKE), Block (SQ), PayPal (PYPL). Of the Magnificent 7, I like a catch up in Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), over continued highs in Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT).
Ryan Sullivan
As the Top Stocks to Watch series continues to evolve, we reflect on the value earnings events bring to traders. They typically inject heightened implied volatility into the market and offer insights into the financial health and future of assets.
In 2023, the stocks selected in this series span diverse sectors, including technology, financial services, consumer discretionary, retail, health care, logistics, e-commerce, semiconductors, media, and software. The current expected move in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for Dec. 31, 2024, is between $4,100 to $5,325, which is a little over 600 points in either direction from the current price. Implied volatility brings opportunity and 2024 is shaping up to be a year rich with potential.
Stocks mentioned this year in the Top Stocks to Watch series:
- Uber Technologies (UBER) - three times (February, March, April)
- Morgan Stanley (MS) - three times (April, July, October)
- Target Corp. (TGT) - three times (May, August, December)
- Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) - three times (June, August, December)
- FedEx Corp. (FDX) - three times (June, September, December)
- Amazon (AMZN) - twice (February, April)
- CVS Health Corporation (CVS) - twice (February, March)
- CarMax Inc. (KMX) - twice (April, December)
- Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) - twice (April, July)
- Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) - twice (May, November)
- Nike Inc. (NKE) - twice (June, December)
- The Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) - 2 times (April, October)
- Oracle Corp. (ORCL) - twice (June, September)
- Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) - once (February)
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) -once (May)
- Walmart Inc. (WMT) - once (May)
- SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI) - once (May)
- PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) - once (March)
- Carnival Corp. (CCL) - once (March)
- JD.com Inc. (JD) -once (March)
- Macy's Inc. (M) - once (June)
- Taiwan Semiconductor ADR (TSM) - once (April)
- American Express Company (AXP) - once (June)
- Qualcomm (QCOM) - once (November)
- Apple (AAPL) - once (November)
- Disney (DIS) - once (November)
- Unity (U) -once (November)
- Applied Materials (AMAT) - 1 time (November)
- Mongo DB (MDB) - once (December)
- C3.ai (AI) -once (December)
- Chewy (CHWY) - once (December)
- Adobe (ADBE) - once (December)
- Accenture (ACN) - once (December)
- Micron Technology (MU) - once (December)
Join us on tastylive on Friday, Dec. 29 for a 2023 review.
Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb
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