Equities Rise and Silver Surges as Traders Digest Economic Data and Trump-Xi Call
Equities Rise and Silver Surges as Traders Digest Economic Data and Trump-Xi Call
Also, 10-year T-bond, silver, crude oil and euro dollar futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): +0.09%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.18%
- Silver futures (/SI): +3.71%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.15%
- Euro dollar futures (/6E): +0.23%
Market sentiment remained steady today as investors digested the latest news on the US labor market. Jobless claims rose to 247,000, which marked an eight-month high for the indicator. The market is now bracing for tomorrow morning’s non-farm payrolls report. Analysts expect to see about 130,000 jobs added in May.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESM5 | +0.09% |
| /NQM5 | +0.47% |
| /RTYM5 | +0.15% |
| /YMM5 | +0.13% |
S&P 500 futures were slightly higher this morning, rising about 0.09% through the first full hour of trading. Chinese media outlets reported that Chinese President Xi and US President Trump held a phone call overnight. Details of the call are sparse, but US actions to put restrictions on Chinese student visas has introduced some volatility back into the relationship between Beijing and Washington. Five Below (FIVE) rose over 8% after the retailer posted strong earnings. Chewy (CHWY) rose 0.8% despite receiving a downgrade from Jefferies.
| Strategy: (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 5950 p Short 5975 p Short 6150 c Long 6175 c | 18% | +925 | -325 |
| Short Strangle | Short 5975 p Short 6150 c | 46% | +10025 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 5950 p Short 5975 p | 59% | +375 | -875 |
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| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTM5 | -0.05% |
| /ZFM5 | -0.16% |
| /ZNM5 | -0.18% |
| /ZBM5 | -0.14% |
| /UBM5 | -0.03% |
The 10-year T-note futures (/ZNU5) fell slightly as economic indicators for the US labor market pointed to some developing weakness. Rate traders pushed their bets up for a cut from the Federal Reserve for September. Job cuts data rose to 93,816 for May, according to Challenger. The modest loss follows a 0.59% gain for the note that came yesterday, which was the biggest daily gain since April 14.
| Strategy (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 109.5 p Short 110 p Short 111.5 c Long 112 c | 28% | +343.75 | -156.25 |
| Short Strangle | Short 110 p Short 111.5 c | 53% | +1437.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 109.5 p Short 110 p | 72% | +156.25 | -343.75 |
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| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | -0.26% |
| /SIN5 | +3.71% |
| /HGN5 | +2.15% |
Silver futures (/SIN5) surged nearly 4% higher today, pushing the metal to a fresh all-time high. Traders anticipated the move because silver had been lagging behind gold prices for a prolonged period. The move pushed the gold/silver ratio to the lowest level traded since early April. A softer dollar and weak US economic data helped to fuel the move in silver.
| Strategy (53DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 35.25 p Short 35.5 p Short 37.5 c Long 37.75 c | 22% | +980 | -270 |
| Short Strangle | Short 35.5 p Short 37.5 c | 57% | +11990 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 32.25 p Short 35.5 p | 58% | +575 | -675 |
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| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLN5 | +1.15% |
| /HON5 | +1.46% |
| /NGN5 | -1.29% |
| /RBN5 | +1.60% |
Crude oil prices (CLN5) rose over 1% this morning. Prices are now trading near the highest levels since early April, although these levels have been traded and sold off several times over the past several months. The commodity got a boost after news of the Trump-Xi call circulated. The potential for a trade deal between the US and China would remove a significant question mark for the commodity. However, US data showed yesterday that gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected, implying demand in the US is weakening.
| Strategy (42DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 60 p Short 60.5 p Short 64 c Long 64.5 c | 22% | +370 | -130 |
| Short Strangle | Short 60.5 p Short 64 c | 53% | +3910 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 60 p Short 60.5 p | 61% | +170 | -330 |
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| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AM5 | +0.32% |
| /6BM5 | +0.22% |
| /6CM5 | +0.08% |
| /6EM5 | +0.23% |
| /6JM5 | -0.67% |
Euro dollar futures (/6EM5) rose after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates. The market now sees the ECB holding steady with its benchmark rate back at 2% despite a highly uncertain economic backdrop. The ECB sees inflation averaging 1.7% through the next year, which is up slightly from its previous projection of 1.6%. The weak US economic data also helped boost the euro.
| Strategy (64DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.135 p Short 1.14 p Short 1.165 c Long 1.17 c | 28% | +425 | -200 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.14 p Short 1.165 c | 55% | +2637.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.135 p Short 1.14 p | 70% | +225 | -400 |
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Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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