Nasdaq 100 Steadies After Bessent Comments; GDP and Tech Earnings Await

Also, 30-year T-bond, silver, crude oil and Canadian dollar futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.1% 
2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): +0.24% 
3. Silver futures (/SI): +0.82% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -2.51% 
5. Canadian dollar futures (/6C): -0.14% 

Markets remain in a holding pattern as the bulk of market-moving data and events are lurking in the second half of the week. The March U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report showed fewer employment openings than anticipated (7.2 million actual vs, 7.5 million expected), another piece of evidence that the U.S. economy was slowing before the imposition of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. This morning’s comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did little to soothe concerns about the administration’s trade policies, but then again he did little to elevated fears, either. Light trading volume akin to yesterday are the central expectation insofar as traders are waiting for the 1Q’25 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) report tomorrow morning and earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) after-hours tomorrow. 

Nasdaq futures (/NQM5) were nearly unchanged at the open as investors digested earnings reports and focused on the path of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead of Friday’s jobs report. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) gained over 4% in early trading after beating estimates for the first quarter. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) was little-changed after the payment provider maintained its forecast. United Parcel Service (UPS) fell 1.5% after warning that economic uncertainty is clouding its outlook. JetBlue Airways (JBLU) fell 5% after withdrawing its outlook.  

The White House called the Amazon (AMZN) move to list tariff prices next to its products a hostile and political act, which sent shares slightly lower this morning. Amazon later clarified the company memo, effectively rescinding the announcement. Hims & Hers (HIMS) gained over 25% on news Novo Nordisk (NVO) would offer its weight-loss drug through the company. 

Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the long-end outpacing the shorter-dated tenures. Job openings data from the Labor Department showed the number of jobs open in the U.S. fell to 7.2 million in March. Bond traders are now waiting for Friday’s jobs report to help gauge the health of the economy. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBM5) were 0.2% higher this morning in early trading. The 30-year yield traded around 4.679%, remaining near the lowest level traded since April 10. 

Silver prices (/SIN5) caught a bid this morning, rising about 0.75% through morning trading. The gold/silver ratio remains near levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic, which indicates gold is expensive relative to silver. A mean reversion in that ratio could take some time to normalize, and traders have pulled back their long bets on the white metal. Friday’s COT data showed that long speculators trimmed their positions to the lowest levels of the year to around 64,693 contracts. Silver lacks the safe-haven appeal of gold and is also more susceptible to weakness in the economy because its used in industrial processes. The trade war between the U.S. and China has kept bulls at bay and that may continue until we get some clarity on the situation.  

Crude oil prices (/CLM5) fell about 2% this morning as fear of a global recession strengthen. While the White House has touted progress on some trade negotiations, China remains a focal point and there hasn't been much progress on that front. The damage from a trade war on the two largest oil-consuming nations has put bulls on the defense, and prices are now hovering just above $60 per barrel. A break below that psychological level could inject more fear into the market. The projected drop in demand alongside more output hikes from OPEC+ could leave the market oversupplied in the second half of the year, which is being reflected in prices today.  

Canadian dollar futures (/6CM5) had a tepid reaction to last night’s win for Canada’s Liberal Party. Mark Carney has vowed to fight the U.S. in its trade war, which could prolong negotiations. The loonie has performed well against the dollar this year, but it's lagged against other non-U.S. dollar peers. The pullback in oil prices is also providing a headwind to the currency. A recession could force the Bank of Canada to cut rates more aggressively, which could hamper further loonie gains this year.  

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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