Nasdaq 100 Shrugs Off Trump-Musk Drama; May US NFP Doesn’t Miss

Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.93% 
2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.74% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): +0.1% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.44% 
5. Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.78% 

Linguists have yet to conceive of the words to describe what unfolded across traditional and social media yesterday between the world’s most powerful man and the world’s richest man. Not that it mattered for stocks — taking Tesla and the Trump/Musk feud out of the equation, stocks traded higher yesterday. And with signs of cooling off by this morning, traders have started to look past the drama and instead shift their attention back to more orthodox catalysts. 

 

One such catalyst was the May US non-farm payrolls report released this morning. Jobs growth is solid if not slowing, with the headline figure coming in at 139,000 vs. the expected 130,000. But the previous two months were revised lower by 95,000, taking some sheen off the beat. The unemployment rate (U3) held stead at 4.2%, but a look below the hood shows a 4.244% reading; not barely falling below the line where it would have been rounded up to 4.3%. Wages, on the other hand, were stronger with an increase 3.9% year over year vs. the 3.7% expected.  

 

Overall, the May US jobs report was a mixed bag: firmer wages may have to do with kinks around the tariffs, with workers decidedly negative in the household employment survey: They reported a drop of 696,000 jobs, the largest decline since December 2023. 

 

Symbol: Equities	Daily Change
/ESM5	+0.81%
/NQM5	+0.93%
/RTYM5	+1.15%
/YMM5	+0.69%

 

A strong jobs report dispelled fears of a recession, pushing US equity prices higher this morning. S&P 500 futures (/ESM5) rose over 1% to hit the highest levels traded since early March. Broadcom (AVGO) fell almost 3% after the chipmaker reported a drop in free cash flow. Lululemon (LULU) fell over 20% after the retailer cut its guidance for the year.  

 

Strategy: (55DTE, ATM)	Strikes	POP	Max Profit	Max Loss
Iron Condor	Long 21600 p Short 21700 p Short 22500 c Long 22600 c	19%	+1480	-520
Short Strangle	Short 21700 p Short 22500 c	50%	+18250	x
Short Put Vertical	Long 21600 p Short 21700 p	59%	+635	-1365

 

 

 

Symbol: Bonds	Daily Change
/ZTM5	-0.15%
/ZFM5	-0.35%
/ZNM5	-0.45%
/ZBM5	-0.74%
/UBM5	-0.83%

 

The strong jobs report saw traders pull back on interest rate cut bets for the Federal Reserve, which sent yields higher in the Treasury market. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) fell 0.74% in early trading. The move today pushed prices into negative territory for the month. Next week will bring inflation data and consumer confidence figures, but the downward calculus for Treasuries may last more than a couple of days, given the jobs report strength.  

 

Strategy (49DTE, ATM)	Strikes	POP	Max Profit	Max Loss
Iron Condor	Long 110 p  Short 111 p  Short 114 c  Long 115 c	29%	+671.88	-328.13
Short Strangle	Short 111 p  Short 114 c	53%	+2703.13	x
Short Put Vertical	Long 110 p  Short 111 p	66%	+312.50	-687.50

 

 

 

Symbol: Metals	Daily Change
/GCQ5	+0.1%
/SIN5	+1.66%
/HGN5	-0.77%

 

Gold is giving up some ground following the jobs report. /GCQ5 is trading down to its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which has supported prices several times over the past several weeks. The move higher in yields and the dollar are putting a firm headwind on gold prices. Still, technical structure is holding, and bulls can hinge their hopes on escalating trade tensions.  

 

Strategy (52DTE, ATM)	Strikes	POP	Max Profit	Max Loss
Iron Condor	Long 3300 p  Short 3305 p  Short 3415 c  Long 3420 c	19%	+390	-110
Short Strangle	Short 3305 p  Short 3415 c	54%	+12550	x
Short Put Vertical	Long 3300 p  Short 3305 p	60%	+220	-280

 

 

 

Symbol: Energy	Daily Change
/CLN5	+0.44%
/HON5	-0.03%
/NGN5	+0.63%
/RBN5	+0.09%

 

Crude oil prices (/CLN5) pushed higher after the jobs report, rising about 1.89% an hour into US trading. Prices are now trading at the highest level since early April. For the week, prices are on track to record the largest weekly gain since December. Besides the jobs report, bulls cheered positive headlines on the trade front, with President Xi and President Trump making progress after a phone call this week. Meanwhile, geopolitical premium remains in the price as some anticipate a possible Israeli strike against Iran.  

 

Strategy (41DTE, ATM)	Strikes	POP	Max Profit	Max Loss
Iron Condor	Long 61.5 p  Short 62 p  Short 64.5 c  Long 65 c	17%	+400	-100
Short Strangle	Short 62 p  Short 64.5 c	51%	+4160	x
Short Put Vertical	Long 61.5 p  Short 62 p	58%	+190	-310

 

 

 

Symbol: FX	Daily Change
/6AM5	-0.22%
/6BM5	-0.35%
/6CM5	-0.14%
/6EM5	-0.35%
/6JM5	-0.78%

 

It’s a bad day for the Japanese yen after the jobs report fueled US dollar gains and improved market sentiment. /6JM5 fell 0.78% in early trading. The Treasury’s exchange-rate report to Congress supported further tightening in monetary policy for the Bank of Japan. The Treasury noted that Japan is on its monitoring list for foreign exchange scrutiny but didn’t label Japan as a currency manipulator.  

 

Strategy (66DTE, ATM)	Strikes	POP	Max Profit	Max Loss
Iron Condor	Long 0.00685 p  Short 0.0069 p  Short 0.0071 c  Long 0.00715 c	29%	+425	-200
Short Strangle	Short 0.0069 p  Short 0.0071 c	54%	+2100	x
Short Put Vertical	Long 0.00685 p  Short 0.0069 p	65%	+250	-375

 

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater

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