Meme Stocks Are Back as Low Volume and Low Volatility Push Traders to Speculate
Meme Stocks Are Back as Low Volume and Low Volatility Push Traders to Speculate
Also, 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.29%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.17%
- Silver futures (/SI): +0.04%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): -1.18%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.54%
July 2025 is starting to feel like January 2021, at least in one regard: Meme stocks are back. Low volume and low volatility in U.S. equity indexes may be pushing some market participants into more speculative activity, with publicly traded companies with significant short floats leading the way to the upside; gamma squeezes abound. Is this a sign of excess and complacency in the market?
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | -0.29% |
| /NQU5 | -0.75% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.22% |
| /YMU5 | +0.09% |
S&P 500 futures (/ESU5) changed little in early trading this morning, as investors reassess prices with indexes near record highs. Lockheed Martin (LMT) fell 7% after posting disappointing earnings results. General Motors (GM) fell about 6.5% despite beating earnings estimates. Philip Morris (PM) shed over 7% after missing revenue estimates. Coca-Cola (KO) fell even after it topped expectations. While this morning’s set of results were met with disappointing reactions, traders are focused on Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) earnings scheduled for tomorrow after the bell.
| Strategy: (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 5900 p Short 6000 p Short 6700 c Long 6800 c | 64% | +825 | -4175 |
| Short Strangle | Short 6000 p Short 6700 c | 69% | +2737.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 5900 p Short 6000 p | 83% | +550 | -4450 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | +0.03% |
| /ZFU5 | +0.09% |
| /ZNU5 | +0.17% |
| /ZBU5 | +0.22% |
| /UBU5 | +0.3% |
Treasuries are looking at a fourth day of gains as traders brace for a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today, with 10-year T-note futures (/ZNU5) gaining about 0.14% early today. The odds for a rate cut at next week’s meeting is now at 2.6%, down from 14.5% a month ago. The base case scenario for the next cut remains for the September meeting, which should help drive yields down, albeit with the potential for more volatility if those rate cut bets get pushed back as happened in July.
| Strategy (66DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 108 p Short 109 p Short 114 c Long 115 c | 61% | +250 | -750 |
| Short Strangle | Short 109 p Short 114 c | 67% | +625 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 108 p Short 109 p | 86% | +140.63 | -859.63 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | +0.54% |
| /SIU5 | +0.04% |
| /HGU5 | +0.31% |
After reaching a fresh 14-year high in overnight trading, silver futures (/SIU5) pulled back during early US trading. A softer dollar and lower yields failed to keep the metal afloat after a big 2.26% rally yesterday that broke the earlier swing high from July. Today’s speech from Powell is in focus, but it’s unlikely he will provide commentary on monetary policy, given that the Fed is in a blackout period with its meeting next week. Silver remains on track to gain over 8% this month.
| Strategy (65DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 34 p Short 35 p Short 44 c Long 45 c | 66% | +1270 | -3735 |
| Short Strangle | Short 35 p Short 44 c | 73% | +4970 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 34 p Short 35 p | 83% | +525 | -4475 |
| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLQ5 | -1.18% |
| /HOQ5 | -2.54% |
| /NGQ5 | -2.32% |
| /RBQ5 | -1.34% |
Crude oil prices (/CLU5) fell over 1% to extend declines from the previous two trading sessions as traders worry about the impact of the upcoming tariff deadline. Without an extension, traders fear US tariffs on trading partners will reduce economic activity and drag oil demand lower with it. A weaker dollar has helped commodities in the last week, but concerns over demand appear to be weighing on oil prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will report weekly inventory data today.
| Strategy (57DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 62 p Short 62.5 p Short 67 c Long 67.5 c | 22% | +360 | -140 |
| Short Strangle | Short 62.5 p Short 67 c | 51% | +4240 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 62 p Short 62.5 p | 58% | +190 | -310 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | -0.03% |
| /6BU5 | -0.1% |
| /6CU5 | +0.1% |
| /6EU5 | -0.02% |
| /6JU5 | +0.54% |
Japanese yen futures (/6JU5) continued to gain today as the currency extends its enthusiasm following Japan’s election results. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba managed to hold onto power after the election results weren’t as bad as feared. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty is becoming more embedded in the market as we move closer to the Aug. 1 deadline. The yen is flashing some safe haven tones amid equity losses during the US trading session.
| Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 0.00675 p Short 0.0068 p Short 0.00695 c Long 0.007 c | 32% | +425 | -200 |
| Short Strangle | Short 0.0068 p
Short 0.00695 c | 56% | +1625 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00675 p Short 0.0068 p | 67% | +237.50 | -387.50 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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