tastylive logo
uploaded image

Nasdaq 100 Steadies as Traders Look Past Tesla Sales Miss and ADP Report

By:Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil and British pound futures

ff july2.png
Nasdaq 100, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil, British pound futures


  1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.02% 
  2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.73% 
  3. Gold futures (/GC): +0.07% 
  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.81% 
  5. British pound futures (/6B): -1% 

The markets were off to a turbulent start today after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in the Senate and a contraction in the June U.S. ADP employment report. U.S. equities are mixed, with Tesla (TSLA) bouncing back after ‘not-as-bad-as-expected’ sales numbers on the heels of yesterday’s Musk-Trump tiff. A push higher by US Treasury yields may be helping the US dollar, which is having its best day in over two weeks. Lastly, a reminder that, with US markets closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday, the June US non-farm payrolls report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EDT. 


Symbol: Equities Daily Change 
/ESU5 -0.09% 
/NQU5 +0.02% 
/RTYU5 +0.19% 
/YMU5 -0.08% 


Nasdaq futures (/NQU5) fell after the ADP jobs report put a crack in the one of the last linchpins for the US economy — the labor market. Still, the ADP report hasn’t performed well in predicting the non-farm payrolls report, which commands more market influence. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) — a reflection of the banking sector — rose 0.21% in pre-market trading after large banks announced dividend increases following the successful completion of the Federal Reserve’s stress tests. Tesla recovered ahead of the bell following yesterday’s decline of over 5%, which was driven by comments from President Trump. 


Strategy: (44DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 21000 p 

Short 21250 p 

Short 24250 c 

Long 24500 c 

65% +1115 -3885 
Short Strangle 

Short 21250 p 

Short 24250 c 

71% +5170 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 21000 p 

Short 21250 p 

84% +630 -4370 



nasdaq.png
nasdaq



Symbol: Bonds Daily Change 
/ZTU5 0% 
/ZFU5 -0.08% 
/ZNU5 -0.22% 
/ZBU5 -0.73% 
/UBU5 -0.92% 


Treasuries declined this morning to extend losses from yesterday. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNU5) were down 0.22% ahead of the New York open. The chances for a rate cut at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) traded around 22.2% after the ADP data, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. That’s up from 20.7% yesterday but down from a month ago when a 23.9% chance was baked in. Traders in the bond market appear to be holding out for tomorrow’s data to get a better feel for how the Fed will act. 


Strategy (51DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 108 p 

Short 110 p 

Short 119 c 

Long 121 c 

62% +484.38 -1515.63 
Short Strangle 

Short 110 p 

Short 119 c 

68% +1062.50 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 108 p 

Short 110 p 

84% +234.38 -1765.63 



treasuries.png



Symbol: Metals Daily Change 
/GCQ5 +0.07% 
/SIU5 +0.21% 
/HGU5 +1.09% 


Gold prices rose slightly after the ADP data sparked some risk-off moves in the equity market. Gold has rallied over 3% since the start of this week, with that advance taking us to the 50% retracement level from the sell-off off the June swing high. Gold could see more strength if tomorrow’s jobs report comes in on the light side, as it would likely cause further selling in equities and bolster rate cut bets for the Fed’s July meeting. 


Strategy (55DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 3125 p 

Short 3150 p 

Short 3525 c 

Long 3550 c 

63% +720 -1780 
Short Strangle 

Short 3150 p 

Short 3525 c 

71% +4070 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 3125 p 

Short 3150 p 

85% +250 -2250 




gold.png
GOLD


Symbol: Energy Daily Change 
/CLQ5 +0.81% 
/HOQ5 +1.03% 
/NGQ5 +1.52% 
/RBQ5 +0.39% 


Crude oil prices were up about 1% in early trading today after Iran suspended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by approving a law that would require the approval of the Supreme National Security Council. The news injects some geopolitical premium back into crude prices. Still, there are little supply disruptions in the market, and traders are expecting OPEC+ to extend production cuts soon for an additional month. A weak US jobs report tomorrow could derail the rally in prices if traders expect the US economy to struggle, which would affect demand for oil.  


Strategy (44DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 56 p 

Short 58 p 

Short 75 c 

Long 77 c 

68% +390 -1610 
Short Strangle 

Short 58 p 

Short 75 c 

73% +1330 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 56 p 

Short 58 p 

83% +260 -1740 



crude.png


Symbol: FX Daily Change 
/6AU5 -0.29% 
/6BU5 -1% 
/6CU5 +0.07% 
/6EU5 -0.11% 
/6JU5 -0.19% 


A striking scene during PMQs (Prime Minister’s Questions) in Parliament today may be hurting the British pound: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves was seen crying on the floor during Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s PMQ after he refused to confirm she would remain at her post moving forward. Not that Starmer’s answers were particularly constructive from a fiscal perspective: UK Gilts and Sterling have been selling off together. Overall, it’s the best day for the US dollar (via $DXY) since June 17. 


Strategy (37DTE, ATM) Strikes POP Max Profit Max Loss 
Iron Condor  

Long 1.32 p 

Short 1.33 p 

Short 1.39 c 

Long 1.4 c 

61% +218.75 -406.25 
Short Strangle 

Short 1.33 p 

Short 1.39 c 

69% +643.75 
Short Put Vertical 

Long 1.32 p 

Short 1.33 p 

84% +112.50 -512.50 


6bu5.png




Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

Trade with a better brokeropen a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2025 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.