S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Reach all-time highs as Oil Rises
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Reach all-time highs as Oil Rises
Also, 30-year T-bond, silver, crude oil and euro futures
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.48%
- 30-year T-bond futures (/ZB): -0.16%
- Silver futures (/SI): -1.84%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.86%
- Euro futures (/6E): +0.05%
US equity markets are closing out the quarter with a bang, with each of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting fresh all-time highs in the cash market. Tech stocks led this week’s surge, and the sector is approaching a 5% gain over the past few days. Mixed US economic data is taking a backseat to the news of the day, which is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade deals should be wrapped up by September — a clear indication the July 9 deadline means nothing.
| Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
| /ESU5 | +0.42% |
| /NQU5 | +0.48% |
| /RTYU5 | +0.24% |
| /YMU5 | +0.59% |
Nasdaq futures (/NQU5) rose 0.27% ahead of the opening bell on this morning, as positive news flows on trade deals helped support sentiment. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade deals with several countries are “imminent.” Nike (NKE) rose 10% ahead of the bell after the apparel brand posted positive fourth quarter numbers. Energy stocks rose on news that the Trump administration is planning to issue executive orders aimed at making it easier to increase power supply to expand artificial intelligence. Constellation Energy (CEG) rose about 2% in pre-market trading.
| Strategy: (49DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 21000 p Short 21500 p Short 24500 c Long 25000 c | 66% | +1035 | -3965 |
| Short Strangle | Short 21500 p Short 24500 c | 72% | +5125 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 21000 p Short 21500 p | 84% | +605 | -4395 |
| Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
| /ZTU5 | -0.07% |
| /ZFU5 | -0.14% |
| /ZNU5 | -0.15% |
| /ZBU5 | -0.16% |
| /UBU5 | -0.16% |
Bonds fell this morning after the higher-than-expected print on inflation via the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which rose 2.7% in May from the year before and thus pushed back on the view for a July rate cut. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU5) were 0.11% lower in early trading. Rate traders are pricing in a 21% chance the Fed will cut rates in July, up from about 14% a week ago after a series of economic data bolstered the view for rate cuts. Prices remain on track to record a gain of over 1% even with this morning’s pullback.
| Strategy (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 109 p Short 111 p Short 120 c Long 122 c | 61% | +546.88 | -1453.13 |
| Short Strangle | Short 111 p Short 120 c | 67% | +1281.25 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 109 p Short 111 p | 80% | +328.13 | -1671.88 |
| Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
| /GCQ5 | -1.89% |
| /SIU5 | -1.84% |
| /HGU5 | -0.53% |
Silver prices (/SIU5) fell 2.40% as the prospect of early rate cuts faded following this morning’s inflation data. A higher rate of inflation poses a problem for the July rate cut, and precious metals have rallied on the view that rates will come down. Now, with little help from geopolitical tensions, traders are selling the metal. Prices are still holding above a level of support seen around the 36 handle.
| Strategy (60DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 32 p Short 32.5 p Short 40.5 c Long 41 c | 64% | +590 | -1910 |
| Short Strangle | Short 32.5 p Short 40.5 c | 70% | +3155 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 32 p Short 32.5 p |
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| Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
| /CLQ5 | +0.86% |
| /HOQ5 | -1.15% |
| /NGQ5 | +4.17% |
| /RBQ5 | -0.36% |
Crude oil (/CLQ5) rose 0.69% this morning, as prices recover from steep losses earlier this week. Still, prices are on track to record the biggest weekly loss since early 2023, and are currently down over 10% from the start of the week. Geopolitical premiums are largely removed from the market, which shifts the focus back to supply and demand. Earlier this week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 5.8 million barrel decline in crude oil inventory, putting stockpiles 11% below the five-year average. We’re now entering the peak of US demand season into the July 4 holiday. Another inventory draw in the upcoming week could keep oil prices supported before the market shifts its attention to the July 6 OPEC+ meeting.
| Strategy (49DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 62.5 p Short 63 p Short 67 c Long 67.5 c | 18% | +390 | -110 |
| Short Strangle | Short 63 p Short 67 c | 49% | +4770 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 62.5 p Short 63 p | 54% | +230 | -270 |
| Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
| /6AU5 | -0.48% |
| /6BU5 | -0.2% |
| /6CU5 | -0.16% |
| /6EU5 | +0.05% |
| /6JU5 | -0.38% |
Euro futures (/6EU5) steadied today as the currency traders near the highest levels since September 2021. The dollar came under pressure earlier this week as markets questioned the independence of the Fed once again. This morning’s inflation data helped to support the dollar, as it trimmed expectations for a cut in July. Eurozone economic sentiment weakened in June, declining to 94.0 from 94.8.
| Strategy (42DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
| Iron Condor | Long 1.165 p Short 1.17 p Short 1.19 c Long 1.195 c | 29% | +412.50 | -212.50 |
| Short Strangle | Short 1.17 p Short 1.19 c | 57% | +2237.50 | x |
| Short Put Vertical | Long 1.165 p Short 1.17 p | 68% | +237.50 | -387.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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