Rivian Earnings: Domestic Advantage Sets EV Maker Apart Amid Tariff Turmoil

The company is primed for a strong earnings call after today’s close

• Rivian is expect to report negative quarterly earnings per share tomorrow.
• The company also expects to deliver fewer vehicles this year than in 2024.
• But its time may have come: Its vehicles are 100% domestically assembled.

Rivian (RIVN) is expected to announce it lost 77 cents per share on revenue of $997.7 million when it makes its quarterly earnings report today. The company has issued full-year delivery estimates of 46,000-51,000 vehicles, which would be below the 51,579 delivered in 2024. 

Rivian delivered 14,183 vehicles in Q4 of 2024, rounding out a year that saw an increase in deliveries each quarter, starting from 8,640 deliveries in Q1. Based on the full-year guidance for this year, it’s likely Q1 2025 deliveries will decline slightly from Q4 2024, and that sentiment is reinforced by the April announcement that its Q1 deliveries were down by 36%. 

Current analyst price targets for RIVN fall in the $14 to $16 range, with some more generous estimates falling as high as $18 to $20. 

Legacy automakers face tariffs

Tariffs have been the prevailing theme in earnings calls—and the entire market—over the last month. The automotive sector has been hit particularly hard by tariffs; Ford (F) and Stellantis (STLA), which was formerly Chrysler, both suspended full-year guidance, and General Motors (GM) slashed its full-year guidance by almost 25%.

These suspensions and reductions in full-year guidance across the automotive sector are driven (pun intended) by the quantity of parts and completed vehicles that these companies import and the uncertainty surrounding the final tariff bill that will come at the end of the 90-day pause we are currently in after the chaos brought on by Liberation Day. 

Why Rivian may be built for this moment

Rivian, however, is potentially well-positioned amid the tariff uncertainty. The company performs 100% of its vehicle assembly here, much like Tesla (TSLA), its biggest competitor in EVs. 

But despite both automakers completing 100% of their assembly here of vehicles that will be sold domestically, Rivian still has a leg up. That’s because it imports fewer parts than Tesla, further lowering the tariff burden.

Rivian is also doubling down on its domestic assembly, announcing yesterday it will spend $120 million to build a supplier park near its plant in Normal, Illinois. It currently builds all of its EVs at this plant, and the expansion indicates it has no intention to pivot anytime soon. 

Additionally, Rivian is working hard to address one of the biggest advantages Tesla holds over them—access to a budget-conscious demographic. The Rivian R2 lineup is slated for release in 2026 and will offer a series of more affordable vehicles.

It also seems highly likely Rivian will be able to adhere to this ambitious timeline for the release of the R2 because it has formed a symbiotic relationship with Volkswagen. Volkswagen provides Rivian with the capital to develop the R2 and, in turn, Rivian shares its technology with Volkswagen to develop its own EVs. 

Rivian’s R2 vehicles will have an estimated retail price of around $45,000, which is competitive with Tesla’s Model 3 ($42,490) and Model Y ($44,990). Becoming competitive in that market segment is vital for Rivian’s future, and guidance of the R2 lineup will play into its post-earnings move just as much as guidance on tariffs. 

With the tariff tide rising, Rivian stands ready

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu noted in his preview that “Rivian may have the cleanest set-up [of all automotive manufacturers] given its relatively small exposure to the tariffs and prospects for a strong R2 product cycle.” I couldn’t agree more. 

In my opinion, the slack in Q1 deliveries is not alarming and is already priced into the stock. Between the best tariff positioning in the game and aggressively working to expand its offerings to a more budget-conscious demographic, I believe Rivian is primed for a strong earnings call after today’s close, and potentially many more strong months to follow.

Gus Downing is host of the tastylive Network show Risk and Reward. @GainsByGus
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and #tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive Inc. and tastytrade Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.